Sochaux vs Fleury 91: match statistics

Sochaux is the favorite for this match: they sit 2nd and have a 67% home win rate (this season: 15 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses), and in the last 5 matches they scored 10 goals and conceded 3 (4 wins, 1 loss). At home Sochaux average 1.75 goals scored and only 0.42 conceded per match, keep clean sheets in 58% of games and have xG 1.58 vs xG against 0.93, averaging 13.83 shots with 4.83 on target. Fleury are 5th and also in form (last 5: 4 wins, 1 draw, 11 goals scored), but away they score just 1.31 goals per match and register xG 1.31 vs xG against 1.41. Sochaux’s key advantages are superior offensive efficiency with a higher shot volume (13.83 vs 10.15) and a markedly better defense (0.42 vs 0.85 goals conceded per match) as well as a lower share of matches without a goal (8% vs 23%). Despite the visitors’ good form, the xG balance, lower goals-conceded rate and high clean-sheet percentage for the hosts point to a Sochaux victory.

I assess No BTTS at 60% (vs 40% BTTS - Yes). Sochaux at home have 46% clean sheets and only 38% season BTTS, averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match. Fleury have a season BTTS of 46% with 1.31 scored and 0.85 conceded, but their BTTS rate in the last 5 matches rose to 80% with an average 2.2 goals scored. Sochaux generate more xG (1.49 vs 1.31) and more shots on target (4.92 vs 3.62), and in the last 5 matches the hosts have a higher average xG (2.07 vs 1.12) and fewer goals conceded (0.6 vs 0.8), which suggests the home side are more likely to keep a clean sheet. Considering Sochaux have conceded 18 goals this season and have a high clean sheet rate in the league (56%), the 'No' scenario looks stronger despite the risk posed by Fleury's recent form.

Model xG projects 1.45 xG for Sochaux (attack average 1.49 vs opponent defense 1.41) and 1.29 xG for Fleury (1.31 vs 1.26), totaling 2.74 expected goals. Seasonal averages reinforce this: Sochaux scores 1.46 goals per game and registers 11.42 shots (4.92 on target), Fleury has 1.31 goals with 10.15 shots (3.62 on target), with conversion rates of 14% and 13%. Both teams frequently exceed 1.5 goals this season — Sochaux 69% and Fleury 62% — and in the last 5 matches Sochaux scored 10 goals (2.0 avg), Fleury 11 goals (2.2 avg), which strengthens the signal for Over 1.5. Over 2.5 has moderate backing (Sochaux 62% home >2.5, Fleury 38% on the season, but Fleury 80% Over 2.5 in the last 5), therefore I estimate about a 64% probability for Over 2.5; Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 31% and 15% for home and away), hence my estimate around 26%. Conclusion: the strongest market to play is Over 1.5 — expected 2.74 goals and clear xG 1.45/1.29 plus seasonal 69%/62% provide a distinct edge for Over 1.5.

Seasonally, Sochaux have led at the break in 46% of matches and average 0.77 goals by half-time versus 0.54 for Fleury, while Sochaux concede only 0.31 goals on average before the break — this indicates a home advantage at half-time. Over full matches Sochaux also show higher xG (1.49 vs 1.31) and more shots on target per game (4.92 vs 3.62), suggesting the hosts generate more high-quality chances and are more likely to maintain a lead. Conversely, in the last five fixtures Fleury have gone ahead at half-time in 80% (4 of 5) and during that run average 1.4 first-half goals versus Sochaux’s 0.8, signaling the visitors can score quickly; however, this is a short streak. Considering Sochaux’s seasonal half-time advantages in metrics (half-time points average 1.77 vs 1.54 for Fleury) and the hosts’ high proportion of half-time clean sheets (77% vs 62%), the most probable scenario is 1/1 (Sochaux lead at half-time and win), which I assign a 28% probability. Alternatively I rate X/1 at 15% and X/X at 13%, while half-time leads for the away team are combined at 16% due to Fleury’s lower long-term xG and fewer shots on target.