Solihull Moors vs Southend United: match statistics

Southend United have started the season with 2 wins and remain unbeaten, while Solihull Moors have lost both of their matches so far and sit 24th. Away from home, the visitors average 3 goals per match, create chances worth 2.01 xG and register 7 shots on target—comfortably outperforming Solihull’s home figures of 0 goals, 0.94 xG and 1 shot on target. The hosts have failed to score in any home fixture despite enjoying 61% possession, while their defense allows opponents 2.27 xG and concedes an average of 2 goals. Southend also have the stronger five-match trend, collecting 8 points compared with Solihull’s 4 and conceding just 3 goals, whereas the hosts have conceded 11. The visitors’ superiority in chance quality, finishing and defensive stability points to a Southend United victory.

The strongest argument for both teams to score is Solihull Moors’ weak recent defensive record: the team conceded an average of 2.2 goals across five matches, with an xG against of 1.96. Southend United should be able to exploit this profile, as they average 7 shots on target and are currently scoring 3.0 goals per away match. Solihull also have grounds to respond: the hosts generate a seasonal xG of 1.93 and 7 shots on target per game, while Southend have allowed an average xG of 1.24. However, the signal is not conclusive, as both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five matches, while Southend conceded just 0.6 goals per game during that period. Nevertheless, the hosts’ superior chance-creation quality against a solid but not infallible away defense marginally shifts the forecast towards BTTS - Yes.

Solihull Moors’ last five matches produced an average of 3.4 goals, but the team scored only 1.2 and conceded as many as 2.2 per game. Southend United are far more defensively stable: over the same period, they conceded 3 goals, or 0.6 per match, with an average xG against of 1.11. The visitors create chances worth 1.22 xG per game, while the hosts allow their opponents 1.96 xG, which is why the largest share of the goal projection falls to Southend. Despite this, the total expected goals stand at 2.50, and only 20% of Southend’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as it requires at least four goals, while the visitors’ solid defense limits the probability of such an open game.

Southend are showing better current form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 points and conceded just 0.6 goals, while Solihull have collected 0.8 points and allowed 2.2 goals. A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Southend were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, with their average first-half goal total standing at just 1.2. The hosts have scored an average of 0.8 goals before the break, but failed to score in the first half in 80% of their last five matches, limiting the chances of taking an early lead. After half-time, the advantage should shift towards the visitors: Solihull conceded an average of 1.6 goals in this period, while Southend kept a clean sheet after the interval in all 5 of their last 5 appearances. An away win following a half-time draw is also supported by Southend's greater attacking potential, reflected in an xG of 2.01 compared with 1.93 and a shot conversion rate of 19% compared with the hosts' 8%.