Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Fortuna Köln: match statistics

Fortuna Köln sit 3rd in the table, while Sonnenhof Großaspach are only 14th, which clearly favors the visitors. In their last five matches, Fortuna have collected 7 points, averaging 1.4 points per game, compared with the hosts’ 6 points and 1.2-point average. Sonnenhof have scored as many as 15 goals during this period, but have also conceded 12, highlighting significant defensive instability. The visitors have scored just 7 goals while conceding 8, so their advantage is not decisive, and an open game could benefit both sides. Fortuna’s superior league position and slightly better recent record give them the best chance of securing an away win.

The signal for both teams to score is driven primarily by Sonnenhof Großaspach’s recent form: they have scored 15 goals in their last five matches, averaging 3.0 per game, but have conceded as many as 12, or 2.4 per match. Fortuna Köln also offer an attacking argument, averaging 1.4 goals scored over the same period, while the hosts have regularly allowed opponents plenty of goalscoring opportunities. BTTS - Yes landed in 60% of Fortuna’s last five matches and in 40% of Großaspach’s games, producing a moderately positive, though not conclusive, trend. The visitors have conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match, so the hosts’ highly effective recent attack has a strong chance of scoring. The lack of complete season data and xG indicators limits confidence in the prediction, but the combination of 3.0 goals scored by the hosts and 2.4 goals conceded by them favors the BTTS - Yes scenario at 59%.

Sonnenhof Großaspach’s latest five matches produced as many as 3.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, indicating a very open team profile. Over the same period, Fortuna Köln averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, meaning their matches also averaged 3.0 goals. At least three goals were scored in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 80% of the visitors’ matches, while both teams scored a combined 22 goals across these samples. A projection of 3.25 goals, after cautiously reducing the short-term averages, clearly supports Over 1.5 above all, as this requires only two goals. The Over 2.5 line also holds an edge, but greater volatility in a limited sample makes Over 1.5 the strongest selection.

Fortuna’s last five matches have clearly been stronger in the second halves: they have averaged 0.8 goals, while Sonnenhof have failed to score after the break in any of those games and conceded 1.5 goals per match during that period. The hosts also failed to score before half-time in any of these five outings, and in as many as 50% of cases they went into the break trailing. Fortuna were ahead at half-time in only 20% of their matches, so the scenario of a half-time draw followed by a full-time win has a significant alternative; however, Sonnenhof’s weakness after the interval increases the likelihood of the visitors taking the lead earlier. The visitors won 40% of their latest matches and averaged 1.4 points per game after half-time, compared with 0.0 for the hosts, which most strongly supports the HT/FT 2/2 outcome: Fortuna to lead at the break and secure the full-time victory.