Soroksár SC vs Ajka: match statistics

I predict a home win (1) based on their offensive superiority: at home Soroksár averages 11.46 shots and 3.46 shots on target per match with an 11% conversion rate, translating to 1.23 goals per match and 34 goals this season; Ajka away averages 9.08 shots, 2.92 on target, an 8% conversion and only 0.69 goals per match (21 goals this season). Conversely Ajka’s defense away is solid — Ajka concedes only 0.92 goals on average away and has 38% clean sheets, while Soroksár concedes 1.62 goals at home and has 0% clean sheets. xG indicates a narrowing of chance quality: Soroksár generates 1.37 xG at home, Ajka 1.21 xG away, but Ajka records 1.68 xG against away compared to 1.54 xG against Soroksár at home, suggesting goals may hinge on a few key situations. Over the last 5 matches the teams are even — Soroksár scored 6 goals and averages 1.6 points per match, Ajka 5 goals and also 1.6 points per match — therefore I give the slight edge to the home side due to a higher volume of created chances and better conversion (34 vs 21 goals this season).

I lean toward BTTS - Yes with a 68% vs 32% probability, mainly due to a strong signal from the last five matches. In their last 5 games Soroksár had BTTS in 80% of matches and Ajka in 60%, with average goals 1.2 for Soroksár and 1.0 for Ajka and average goals conceded of 1.2 for both teams. Seasonal data is mixed: Soroksár at home scores 0.86 and concedes 1.43 (50% BTTS), Ajka away scores 0.69 and concedes 0.92 (23% BTTS), and the league averages 2.51 goals per match. xG also supports goals from both sides — attacking xG is 1.34 for Soroksár and 1.21 for Ajka (total 2.55), while xG against is around 1.60 and 1.68, and over the season Soroksár has conceded 44 goals, Ajka 32. Although Ajka has more clean sheets (38% vs 21% Soroksár), the combined xG, shots on target (3.33 vs 2.92) and recent BTTS stats favor the scenario that both teams will score.

Data analysis shows home xG 1.34 with actual goals scored 0.86, and away xG 1.21 with actual 0.69; I adjusted expected values to 1.15 for Soroksár and 1.00 for Ajka, totaling 2.15 goals. With that combined expectation a Poisson model yields ~63% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), ~36% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and ~17% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5). Season stats support a lower line bias: Soroksár has 64% of matches Over 1.5 and 43% Over 2.5, Ajka 38% and 15% respectively, so the signal for Over 1.5 is clearer than for Over 2.5. Additionally Soroksár scores 1.2 goals on average in the last 5 matches vs Ajka 1.0, but the hosts concede 1.43 per game (away 0.92), which keeps risk moderate. Consequently I recommend playing the Over at 1.5 as the strongest and most probable scenario.

First-half statistics show Soroksár led at the break in 43% of matches, scoring an average of 0.57 goals by half-time, while Ajka led at the break in only 8% and averaged 0.23 goals by half-time. In the second half Ajka performs better: they score an average of 0.46 goals after the break and win the second half in 31% of cases, whereas Soroksár adds an average of 0.29 goals and wins the second half in 7% of matches. Over the full match Ajka has a slightly higher win rate, 38% versus Soroksár’s 36%, and the visitors score more often late on (4 goals in minutes 76–90 vs. 3 for the hosts), which favors turnarounds after the break. Taken together — frequent Soroksár leads at the break (43%) versus Ajka’s stronger second half (0.46 goals and 31% second-half wins) — the strongest signal is the scenario where the hosts lead at half-time and the guests win the match (HT/FT: 1/2).