Soroksár SC vs Mezőkövesd-Zsóry: match statistics

Soroksár SC holds a clear edge based on the last five matches: they scored 8 goals in the last 5 fixtures (average 1.6 per game) and conceded 3 goals (0.6 per game), while Mezőkövesd-Zsóry scored 4 goals (0.8 per game) and conceded 6 (1.2 per game). This translates to a +5 goal differential for the home side versus -2 for the visitors over those five games. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, with 1 draw and 1 loss (form: W D W L W), while the visitors have only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (form: L D W L L). The points-per-game difference over the last 5 gives Soroksár 2.0 points per match versus Mezőkövesd’s 0.8, reinforcing the hosts’ superiority in efficiency and defensive stability. Based on these concrete figures, I tip a home win, although a draw or an away victory remain possible.

In the last 5 matches Soroksár had BTTS in 40% of games (2/5), while Mezőkövesd in 60% (3/5). In those five matches Soroksár scored on average 1.6 goals and conceded 0.6 (8 scored/3 conceded), whereas Mezőkövesd averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded (4/6). xG metrics show Soroksár generates 1.23 xG while Mezőkövesd concedes 1.03 xG, while the visitors have 0.97 xG with hosts conceding 1.35 xG (1.23 > 1.03 and 0.97 < 1.35). Considering the hosts’ low average goals conceded (0.6) and the visitors’ weaker finishing efficiency (0.8 and 0.97 xG), a BTTS - Yes outcome is less likely. Therefore I assess BTTS probability at 40% for Yes and 60% for No and recommend the bet: No.

In the last 5 matches Soroksár averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, while Mezőkövesd averaged 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. xG values show xG for the home side 1.23 versus 0.97 for the visitors, and xG against of 1.35 for Soroksár and 1.03 for Mezőkövesd; averaging these three indicators yields expected goals of 1.29 for the home team and 1.04 for the away team (total 2.33). A Poisson model for a total of 2.33 suggests roughly a 68% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 41% for Over 2.5 and around 21% for Over 3.5, making the 1.5 line the strongest signal. Additionally, the home side had 60% of matches with over 2.5 goals in the last 5 fixtures, the visitors 40%, and the goal aggregate over the last 5 is 8-4 in favor of the home team, which supports an expectation of at least 2 goals. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the safest and statistically justified option.

In the last 5 matches Soroksár averages 1.6 goals per game versus Mezőkövesd’s 0.8 and concedes 0.6 goals compared to 1.2 for their opponents, indicating a home advantage in attack and defense. Soroksár has won 60% of their last five fixtures while Mezőkövesd only 20%, with the hosts leading at the break in 40% of matches and the visitors drawing at half-time in 80% of their games, which increases the probability of a half-time draw. Average goals by half are 1.4 for the hosts versus 1.0 for the visitors (hosts score 1.0 on average by half-time, visitors 0.6), therefore a tied scenario at 45 minutes is common. In the second half Soroksár adds on average 0.6 goals while Mezőkövesd only 0.2, which favors a turnaround toward the hosts and makes the Half-Time/Full-Time outcome draw at half-time, home win after 90 minutes (X/1) the most likely.