Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi: match statistics

Dinamo Tbilisi sit 3rd, while Spaeri are eighth. Across the season, the visitors have won 8 matches and suffered 4 defeats, compared with 5 wins and 7 losses for the hosts. Away from home, Dinamo create significantly more chances, averaging 15.22 shots and 5.67 on target per match, compared with Spaeri’s 10.33 and 4.56, while their average xG stands at 1.85 against 1.40 for their opponents. The visitors are also more solid without the ball, conceding an average of 1.00 goal away from home and allowing 1.29 xG, whereas Spaeri concede 1.33 goals at home with 1.49 xG against. Neither side is in outstanding form, but Dinamo have averaged 1.4 points per game over their last five matches, compared with just 1.0 for Spaeri. The draw risk remains high, as 44% of Dinamo’s away matches have ended level; however, the superior quality of chances created points towards the visitors.

Both teams regularly feature in matches with goals at both ends: Spaeri’s BTTS rate is 60%, while Dinama Tbilisi’s stands at 67%, compared with the league average of 56%. In their last five matches, Spaeri recorded BTTS in 80% of cases and Dinamo in 60%, while the teams conceded an average of 1.6 and 2.0 goals per match, respectively, during this period. Their attacking potential is supported by high season xG averages of 1.83 for the home side and 1.85 for the visitors, along with an average of 5.2 and 5.67 shots on target. Spaeri keeps a clean sheet in only 20% of matches, while Dinamo does so in 33%, increasing the likelihood that both sides will find the net. The “Yes” pick is more likely, although Spaeri’s lower xG from the last five matches, at 1.01, limits confidence in the forecast.

The attacking profile of both teams suggests a goal-filled game: Spaeri score an average of 1.50 goals, while Dinamo Tbilisi average 1.78, against a league average of 2.53 goals per match. Both sides’ xG figures are high and almost identical, at 1.83 for the hosts and 1.85 for the visitors, with each team averaging more than 15 shots per match. In their last five appearances, both teams scored 1.6 goals per game, but conceded 1.6 and 2.0 respectively, while Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% of matches for each side. The Over 1.5 line is also the strongest supported by season data, having occurred in 70% of Spaeri’s matches and 67% of Dinamo’s. Over 2.5 also appears positive, but the relatively frequent three-goal results, combined with only 20% and 33% of matches going Over 3.5 goals, primarily strengthen the safer Over 1.5 option.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point, as Spaeri were level at the break in 60% of their matches, compared with 44% for Dinamo Tbilisi. However, the visitors have a clear advantage in full-time results: they lose in only 11% of matches, compared with a 30% defeat rate for the hosts, while their average points tally stands at 1.78 versus 1.50 for Spaeri. Dinamo also create marginally more high-quality chances, averaging 1.85 xG compared with 1.83, register 5.67 shots on target per match versus 5.20 for their opponents, and convert shots into goals more efficiently, at 12% compared with 10%. After the break, the Tbilisi side score an average of 0.78 goals and lose the second half in only 11% of cases, whereas Spaeri lose the second half in 40% of matches. These figures point to a balanced opening, after which Dinamo’s greater stability should tilt the full-time result in the visitors’ favor.