Spartak Pleven vs Fratria: match statistics

Fratria is the favorite in this matchup — they sit 2nd in the table versus Spartak’s 13th, with 16 wins this season compared to the hosts’ 7, and 49 goals scored versus Spartak’s 28. Match stats indicate Fratria concedes on average 0.85 goals per away game, while Spartak concedes 1.46 at home; the visitors generate more shots (11.23 vs 9.77) and more shots on target (6.46 vs 5.62). However, recent form favors Spartak — in their last 5 matches the hosts have 3 wins and 2 draws (goals 8-1, 2.2 pts/game), whereas Fratria’s last 5 read 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (9-7, 1.6 pts/game). xG data shows 1.35 xG for Spartak at home versus 1.53 xG for Fratria away, suggesting the visitors create slightly more high-quality chances, yet actual recent goal figures favor the hosts defensively (Spartak have conceded 1 goal in 5 matches, Fratria 7). Considering Fratria’s seasonal advantage (fewer goals conceded this season 22 vs 37 and substantially more wins 16 vs 7), I tip the away win, though a draw remains a realistic outcome.

Spartak Pleven averages 2.31 goals scored and concedes 0.85 this season, while Fratria scores 1.46 and also concedes 0.85; the home side posts a higher xG (1.82 vs 1.53) and superior shot conversion (18% vs 13%). Additionally, Spartak failed to score in only 8% of matches this season, while maintaining a season clean sheet rate of 46%, indicating the ability both to score and to keep a clean sheet. In the last 5 matches Spartak conceded just 1 goal (0.2 per game) and had BTTS in 20% of fixtures (4 clean sheets out of 5), whereas Fratria scored 9 goals in their last 5 (1.8 per game) and recorded BTTS in 80% of those games. Although Fratria’s season BTTS rate is 54% (league 44%), the home side’s defensive edge (7.62 shots on target vs 6.46 for Fratria and better conversion 18% vs 13%) increases the likelihood Spartak will close the match with a clean sheet. Considering Spartak’s 4 clean sheets in the last 5, the home 46% season CS rate and the 20% vs 80% BTTS contrast over the last 5, I project BTTS - Yes at 35% and No BTTS at 65%; recommendation: No.

Season statistics point to a high-scoring game: Spartak Pleven score on average 2.31 goals at home, Fratria 1.46 goals away, and both teams have 85% and 77% of matches respectively with over 1.5 goals. xG analysis yields 1.72 xG for the home side (1.82 vs 1.61) and 1.32 xG for the visitors (1.53 vs 1.11), totaling about 3.04 expected goals, above the league average of 2.43. Based on this combined xG (3.04) and shot tempo — Spartak 12.85 shots and 7.62 on target vs Fratria 11.23 and 6.46 — a Poisson model estimates ~81% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~59% for Over 2.5 and ~36% for Over 3.5. Additionally, the home side’s shot conversion of 18% (vs 13% for the visitors) and the fact that 62% of Spartak’s matches finish Over 2.5 further reinforce the Over signal, therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest pick.

Spartak Pleven has a clear home advantage: they average 2.31 goals at home versus Fratria’s 1.46 away, and the hosts win 77% of their home matches. At half-time Spartak led in 8 matches (62% of home games) with an average of 0.92 goals scored and 0.31 conceded by the break, while Fratria averages 0.77 scored and 0.54 conceded at half-time. In the second half the hosts add an average of 1.38 goals and concede 0.54 (net +0.84), and the hosts’ xG of 1.82 versus the visitors’ 1.53 and opponents’ xG against Fratria of 1.61 indicate an expected-chances advantage for Spartak. Although in the last 5 matches Spartak was leading at the break in only 20% (1 of 5), the seasonal HT and second-half figures suggest the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning by full-time; I assess this at about 56%, with the second scenario X/1 at 19% and X/X at 9%.