Spartak Subotica vs IMT Novi Beograd: match statistics

The favorites are the visitors IMT Novi Beograd and I predict their win. In the last 5 matches IMT have a record of 2 wins and 3 draws (0 losses) with 4 goals scored and only 1 conceded, whereas Spartak Subotica have lost all 5 recent matches, scoring 2 and conceding 14. Defensively IMT perform better: Spartak concede 2.35 goals per home match with average xG against 1.89, while IMT concede 1.88 goals away and register average xG for 1.40, indicating greater defensive vulnerability for the hosts. IMT also create more chances (10.88 shots per away match versus Spartak’s 9.18 at home) and despite a similar number of shots on target (3.88 vs 4) have 18% clean sheets away compared to 6% for the hosts; Spartak do have a higher conversion rate (13% to IMT’s 11%), but that does not offset their defensive issues. Considering Spartak’s 0 points in the last 5, their 2.35 average home goals conceded and IMT’s positive trend (avg. 1.8 points per match in the last 5), I assess the probability of an away win at about 64%, a draw 24% and a home win 12%.

Seasonal metrics are mixed: IMT has a seasonal BTTS of 65% vs league average 53%, while Spartak's seasonal BTTS is only 44%. Seasonally Spartak records 56% clean sheets at home, and IMT only 18% away, which on one hand reduces the likelihood of Goal/Goal. However, current form is more important: in the last 5 matches Spartak scored only 2 and conceded 14 (avg 0.4 and 2.8), while IMT scored 4 and conceded 1 (avg 0.8 and 0.2), so IMT rarely concedes and Spartak rarely scores. Additionally recent xG confirms IMT's advantage (IMT has 1.81 xG over the last 5, Spartak has 1.32 xG created in that period, and is attributed 1.75 xG against), so the most likely scenario is IMT scores while Spartak remains No Goal (clean sheet expected for Spartak unlikely).

Based on xG I calculated expected goals: Spartak’s attacking xG 1.66 and IMT’s defensive xG 1.37 yield 1.52 expected goals for the home side, while IMT’s attacking xG 1.40 and Spartak’s defensive xG 1.36 yield 1.38 for the visitors, totaling 2.90. Seasonal goal averages are 1.06 for Spartak and 1.18 for IMT, but in the last 5 matches Spartak scored 2 and conceded 14 (0.4 scored and 2.8 conceded per match), whereas IMT has 4 scored and 1 conceded (0.8 and 0.2). With an expected sum of 2.90 the Poisson model gives probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈79%, Over 2.5 ≈56% and Over 3.5 ≈33%, which aligns with seasonal Over1.5 rates (Spartak 61%, IMT 76%) and Over2.5 rates (Spartak 28%, IMT 53%). Additionally, the percentage of matches with at least one goal is 83% for Spartak and 94% for IMT, and Spartak’s weak defense in the last 5 increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

IMT is in better form than Spartak: in their last 5 matches they have a record of 'dwwdd' (2 wins, 3 draws; last5_winPercentage_overall_away 40%, last5_drawPercentage_overall_away 60%), whereas Spartak have lost all 5 recent games ('lllll', last5_losePercentage_overall_home 100%). At Half-Time a draw is more likely – Spartak were level at the break in 61% of their home matches (drawingAtHTPercentage_home 61%), and IMT were level at Half-Time in 60% of their last 5 away matches (last5_drawingAtHTPercentage_overall_away 60%), with low average first-half goals (scoredAVGHT_home 0.28 vs scoredAVGHT_away 0.24). In the Second Half IMT hold the advantage: they average 1.88 goals after the break (AVG_2hg_away 1.88) and 76% of their matches have at least one goal in the second half (over05_2hg_percentage_away 76%), versus 1.11 and 67% for Spartak (AVG_2hg_home 1.11, over05_2hg_percentage_home 67%). Although Spartak generate higher xG (1.66 vs 1.40; xg_for_avg_home 1.66 vs xg_for_avg_away 1.4) and more shots (13.78 vs 10.88), their recent defensive issues (conceding an average of 2.8 goals in their last 5 matches; last5_seasonConcededAVG_overall_home 2.8) and IMT’s superior shot conversion (shot_conversion_rate_away 11% vs 8% for the hosts) indicate the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and an away win (HT/FT: X/2).