Spartak Varna vs Beroe: match statistics

I predict a home win (1) because Spartak Varna averages 1.2 goals per home match versus Beroe’s 0.73 on the road, with average xG of 1.23 for Spartak at home and 1.13 for Beroe away. Spartak also generates more shots (9.8 vs 8.73) and has a higher conversion rate (12% vs 8%), while shots on target are equal (3.6 to 3.6), which favors their scoring probability. Defensively Beroe shows fewer goals conceded (1.6 away vs Spartak’s 1.93 at home), but Beroe concedes a higher xG against (2.27 vs 1.8), indicating opponents create more high-quality chances against them despite the lower goals-against figure. Form is comparable — 0.8 points per game over the last 5 matches and one win each in that period — however Spartak has a much lower share of shutouts at home (13% vs 47% for the visitors), which supports the home side. Based on their advantage in conversion and lower rate of matches without scoring I assign 55% to a Spartak win, 25% to a draw and 20% to a Beroe win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 33% for Spartak Varna and 47% for Beroe (average 40%), slightly below the league level of 43%. Spartak scores 0.53 goals/match on average, Beroe 0.73, despite xG of 1.22 and 1.13 — they create chances but conversion is low (6% and 8%), resulting in only 25 and 19 goals this season. In the last 5 matches Spartak conceded an average 2.4 goals (12 conceded), while Beroe scored only 0.4 goals (2 scored), so it's more likely that one of the teams will fail to convert created opportunities. Clean sheets this season are 40% (Spartak) and 33% (Beroe), and in the league the share of clean-sheet matches reaches 71%, which further increases the probability that at least one team will not score. Based on this I prefer the 'No' (no BTTS) scenario with a 60% rating versus 40% for 'BTTS - Yes'.

The combined xG for both teams is 2.35 (1.22 for Spartak Varna and 1.13 for Beroe), so expected goals are close to the 2.5 threshold but clearly above 1.5. Season percentages for matches over 1.5 are 60% for Spartak and 53% for Beroe (average 56.5%), supporting the Over 1.5 option. Spartak conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), while low shot conversion rates of 6% (Spartak) and 8% (Beroe) limit the likelihood of a significant rise in goals above 2.5. Season values for Over 2.5 are 40% (Spartak) and 53% (Beroe), and Over 3.5 only 13%/33%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is a bet on Over 1.5.

First-half statistics clearly indicate a half-time draw: Spartak were level at the break in 67% of their matches, Beroe in 60%, and the average goals by half-time are only 0.2 (Spartak) versus 0.4 (Beroe), which strongly increases the likelihood of a draw after 45 minutes. More goals typically come in the second half: the average number of goals after the break is 1.27 for the home side and 1.33 for the away side, so decisive outcomes are more likely after half-time. The home side has a slight edge — average points per match at home are 0.8 versus 0.73 for the visitors, and xG is 1.22 versus 1.13 — this suggests that from a half-time draw there is a greater chance of a Spartak victory than a Beroe one. Based on this, the safest scenario is a half-time draw and full-time draw (X/X, 24%), with X/1 (22%) and X/2 (16%) as the closest alternatives.