Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia: match statistics

Spartak Varna has a clear offensive edge over the last 5 matches — scored 8 goals and won 3 of 5, while CSKA 1948 has only 2 goals and 1 win in the same period. Both teams conceded 3 goals in those five games, so defensively they appear similar, but attacking efficiency favors the hosts (8 vs 2). Spartak averaged 2 points per game in those five matches, CSKA only 1 point; the hosts’ form string 'dwlww' (two consecutive wins to close the run) is more convincing than the visitors’ 'lldwd' (two defeats and instability). At the same time CSKA sits 5th in the table versus Spartak’s 14th, indicating higher-quality opposition over a longer period and making a draw or an away win plausible. Considering the hosts’ 8 goals, 3 wins and 2 PPG, I tip a Spartak victory and estimate probabilities as: 60% home win, 20% draw, 20% CSKA win.

I predict No BTTS — I assess the chance of both teams scoring at 25% vs 75% for No BTTS, therefore I select "No". Spartak Varna averages 1.6 goals scored (8 total) and 0.6 conceded (3 conceded) in the last 5 matches, while CSKA 1948 averages only 0.4 goals (2 total) and also 0.6 conceded. BTTS rate in the last 5 matches is 40% for the home side and 20% for the visitors, indicating a low tendency for Goal/Goal matches. xG confirms the home advantage: Spartak generates 1.81 xG per game vs 1.14 xG for CSKA, but the visitors convert 1.14 xG into only 0.4 goals, indicating an efficiency problem. Considering the 1.6 vs 0.4 difference in average goals scored, the 8:2 goals ratio in the last 5 matches and 40% vs 20% BTTS, the "No" scenario is clearly stronger.

Spartak Varna has averaged 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches with xG 1.81, while CSKA 1948 scores only 0.4 goals with xG 1.14, indicating a significant gap between creation and finishing for the visitors. The hosts conceded 3 goals in their last five matches, the visitors also 3, with xG against of 1.32 (Spartak) and 1.63 (CSKA), yielding expected values of 1.72 for the home side and 1.23 for the away side, totaling approximately 2.95 expected goals. Spartak had 40% of matches over 2.5 goals in their last 5 games, CSKA 0%, with BTTS at 40% and 20% respectively, so there is a moderate probability of both teams scoring. Based on total xG ≈2.95 I estimate probability of Over 1.5 at ~79%, Over 2.5 at ~57% and Over 3.5 at ~34%. The strongest signal is over 1.5 (side: over, line: 1.5) due to the high likelihood of at least two goals and the hosts' superior chance creation (xG 1.81 vs 1.14).

Spartak Varna led at the break in 3 of the last 5 matches (60%) and averaged 1.0 goal in the first half (7 HT goals total), while CSKA 1948 managed only 0.2 HT goals (1 goal total) and led at the break in 1 of 5 matches (20%). In the last 5 fixtures Spartak averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, while CSKA had 0.4 scored and 0.6 conceded, with the home team collecting 2.0 points per match versus 1.0 for the visitors, indicating Spartak’s advantage. After the break the hosts score on average 0.6 goals (vs 0.2 for the visitors) and concede 0.2 (vs 0.6 for the visitors), which increases the chance of maintaining or extending the lead. Spartak had first halves with >0.5 goals in 5 of 5 matches (100%), while the visitors did so in only 1 of 5 (20%), so the most likely scenario is the hosts leading at half-time and winning at full-time (HT/FT 1/1).