Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima: match statistics

Sport Boys have shown a very solid defensive record at home, conceding just 0.5 goals per game on average and keeping a clean sheet in 70% of their matches. However, the hosts create more quality chances than Alianza do away from home, posting an average xG of 1.60 compared with 1.13, while also registering 15.3 shots per game to their opponents’ 10.2. Alianza Lima have been in better form over the season as a whole, with a record of 14 wins, 5 draws and just 1 defeat, and remain unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring 11 goals. Despite this, their average number of goals scored away from home is only 1.0, while Sport Boys lose just 10% of their home matches. Both teams have an identical 40% draw rate in their respective home and away fixtures, making a closely contested draw the most likely outcome, potentially in a low-scoring game.

The BTTS - No pick has a moderate edge, as Sport Boys have scored only 4 goals in their last five matches—an average of 0.8 per game—while conceding just 1 goal. During this period, none of Sport Boys’ five matches featured goals from both teams, which clearly strengthens the scenario in which at least one side fails to score. Alianza Lima are in good attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals across their last five appearances and recording BTTS in 80% of those matches, but they face an opponent conceding just 0.6 goals per game this season. The hosts do have a high seasonal xG of 2.03, but their current average of 0.8 goals and Alianza’s 40% clean-sheet rate weigh slightly more heavily in favor of at least one team failing to score.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as this outcome occurred in 70% of Sport Boys’ matches this season and in as many as 90% of Alianza Lima’s fixtures. Both teams concede an average of just 0.6 goals, while Alianza kept a clean sheet in 50% of its matches, limiting the prospects of a high-scoring game. Sport Boys create plenty of chances at home, averaging 2.03 xG and 7.2 shots on target, yet their last 5 matches produced just 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded per game. Alianza have been more effective recently, scoring 2.2 goals per match across their last five appearances, but their season xG stands at 1.13, while the home side’s defense allows an average of just 0.83 xG. The projected total of 2.40 goals points to a realistic chance of two or three goals, but the four-goal threshold remains clearly too high.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sport Boys victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 5 of their 10 matches, and in as many as 80% of their last five. At the same time, Sport Boys have not conceded before half-time in their last five matches, although they themselves averaged only 0.2 goals during that period, clearly increasing the likelihood of a cautious start. After the break, the hosts are far more effective: they score an average of 1.5 goals per match, win the second half in 60% of their games, and have not lost any of them. Across the season, Sport Boys average 2.7 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded at home, with a 90% win rate, while Alianza Lima score only once per away match on average. However, Alianza are in good form, averaging 2.2 goals scored per match in their last five outings, so a full-time draw and an Alianza victory remain significant alternatives.