Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau: match statistics

I predict a home win (Sport Huancayo). The hosts average 1.5 goals per home match, while Atlético Grau score only 0.44 goals away; the hosts’ home xG is 1.74 versus the visitors’ 1.07 away xG, indicating higher quality of created chances. Additionally, Sport register on average 5.25 shots on target and 16.5 attempts per home game with 55% possession, while the visitors have 3.11 on target, 9.78 attempts and 44% possession away, which limits their creative potential. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.81 xG against and 1.13 goals per home match, whereas Atlético have 1.6 xG against and concede 1.33 goals per away game; the visitors also fail to score in 67% of away matches and have a 67% loss rate on the road. Although Atlético have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points per game in that period, and Huancayo have only 1 win and 0.8 points per game in the last 5, the superiority of the hosts’ offensive stats and xG leads me to rate their chances at 65%, draw 20% and the visitors’ win 15%.

Atlético Grau scores an average of 0.44 goals per match and fails to score in 67% of its games, which significantly reduces the likelihood of BTTS. Sport Huancayo at home averages 1.22 goals scored and concedes 0.78, keeping a clean sheet in 44% of home matches; the hosts also have higher xG of 1.61 and create more chances (avg. 14.0 shots and 5.44 shots on target) than the visitors (xG 1.07, 9.78 shots, 3.11 on target). In the short term Huancayo has 100% BTTS in the last 5 matches (7 scored and 11 conceded, avg. 1.4 and 2.2), while Atlético Grau in the last 5 matches scored 6 and conceded 4 (avg. 1.2 and 0.8) and had BTTS in 40%. The league-wide rate is 57% BTTS, which slightly increases the probability of both teams scoring, but the season BTTS shares for the teams (44% for Huancayo and 22% for Grau) and the visitors’ very low finishing efficiency (shot conversion 5% with xG 1.07) give a stronger signal that the away side may fail to score. Consequently I recommend a "No" (No Goal / clean sheet expected) with a probability estimate of 65% versus 35% for "Yes" (BTTS - Yes).

The combined xG for both teams is 2.68 (1.61 for Sport Huancayo + 1.07 for Atlético Grau), which is almost identical to the league average of 2.67 and indicates potential for at least 2–3 goals. Sport Huancayo has a clear advantage in chance creation: on average 14.0 shots and 5.44 on target per match versus the opponent’s 9.78 and 3.11, and in the last 5 matches Huancayo has recorded Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games. Seasonally both teams have only 44% of matches over 1.5 goals, but Atlético Grau scores 0.44 goals per game against an xG of 1.07 and has improved to 1.2 goals in the last 5 matches (6 goals), so they can add a strike. Based on this I forecast 1.70 goals for the home side and 0.95 for the away side (total 2.65); a Poisson model with these lambdas yields ~74% probability for Over 1.5 and ~50% for Over 2.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5), given the hosts’ offensive advantage and the high 74% probability.

Season statistics clearly favor Sport Huancayo: the hosts average 1.22 goals per game versus Atlético Grau’s 0.44, have higher xG (1.61 vs 1.07) and concede fewer goals (0.78 vs 1.33). At half-time Huancayo led in 5 matches (56%) and score an average of 0.67 goals in first halves while conceding only 0.11, indicating a high probability of a lead at the break. The hosts also register more shots (14 vs 9.78), more shots on target (5.44 vs 3.11) and better conversion (9% vs 5%), increasing their chances of maintaining a lead. For these reasons the strongest signal is Half-Time/Full-Time home lead and win (1/1) — I assign it a 39% probability. Secondary options are draw at half-time with Huancayo winning (X/1 — 17%) or draw/draw (X/X — 12%), while scenarios with the visitors leading at half-time are unlikely (11% total) due to their low average points per match (0.56) and average goals per match (0.44).