Sport Huancayo vs Juan Pablo II College: match statistics

Sport Huancayo has a clear advantage in chance creation and control: at home they average 16 shots (5 on target) with 56% possession, while Juan Pablo II on the road average only 9 shots (3.5 on target) with 43% possession. This translates to chance quality — home xG is 1.7 versus 1.0 xG for the away side, and hosts score 1.33 goals at home on average compared to 1.17 goals for visitors away. In the last 5 matches both teams have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, scoring 7 and 6 goals respectively in those five games, so form is balanced. The decisive advantage is the hosts’ defense — Sport Huancayo concedes 1.0 goal at home on average with xG against 0.84 and 17% clean sheets, while Juan Pablo II concedes 2.5 goals away on average, has xG against 1.57 and 0% clean sheets. Considering superior ball control, higher xG (1.7 vs 1.0) and the visitors’ much weaker defense, I predict a home win; estimated probabilities are: home 65%, draw 20%, away 15%.

Strong BTTS signal: Sport Huancayo has a season BTTS rate of 86% and Juan Pablo II College 67%, averaging around 77%, significantly above the league value of 56%. In the last 5 matches the home side has 100% BTTS and the visitors 80%, confirming the recent tendency of both teams to trade goals. Both teams virtually never keep a clean sheet — season 0% for both — and concede heavily: on average 2.29 (Huancayo) and 2.5 (Juan Pablo) goals per match, and in the last 5 matches 2.0 and 2.2 respectively. Offensively both sides also create chances: average goals scored 1.71 vs 1.17, xG 1.1 vs 1.0 and roughly 3.7 and 3.5 shots on target per game, increasing the likelihood of at least one goal from each side. Considering these figures and the contrast with the league BTTS average, I forecast BTTS - Yes as the most likely outcome with an estimated probability of about 85%.

Both teams’ matches are clearly goal-heavy: Sport Huancayo scores on average 1.71 and concedes 2.29 per game, while Juan Pablo II scores 1.17 and concedes 2.50, with BTTS percentages of 86% (Huancayo) and 67% (Juan Pablo). Season rates for Over 2.5 goals are 86% for the home side and 67% for the away side, and in the last five matches both teams have Over 2.5 at 80%, yielding an average support for the 2.5 line of ~77–80%. xG analysis (Huancayo xG_for 1.10 vs opponents xG_against 1.57; Juan Pablo xG_for 1.00 vs home defense xG_against 1.66) translates to expected goals of ~1.34 for Huancayo and ~1.33 for the visitors, total ≈2.67. Additionally Huancayo attempts more shots (9.86 vs 9.0) and has a higher conversion rate 17% vs 13%, and combined both teams register ~7.2 shots on target per game (3.71+3.5), which supports the realism of an over 2.5 projection. Based on these numbers I recommend a bet on Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability Over 2.5 ≈79%), noting that Over 1.5 is virtually certain (≈99%) while Over 3.5 remains less likely (~37%).

At half-time I expect the away team to have the lead, because the home side have been trailing at the break in 4 of 7 home matches (57%), scoring an average of 0.71 and conceding 1.29 goals before half-time. In the second half the home team score an average of 1.00 goal, win 43% of second halves (3 of 7) and collect 1.43 points in second halves, while the visitors concede an average of 1.83 goals after the break. The home side’s xG is 1.10 versus 1.00 for the away team, and the home conversion rate is 17% against 13% for the visitors, giving them an efficiency edge in the decisive phase of the match. For these reasons the strongest signal is the 2/1 scenario (away lead at the break, home win at full-time), and I assign the highest probability to that outcome.