Sport Huancayo vs Los Chankas: match statistics

Sport Huancayo have significantly stronger home numbers: they win 56% of their matches, score an average of 1.56 goals and create chances worth 1.86 xG. Away from home, Los Chankas score just 1.11 goals per match, while their defense allows opponents 1.54 xG and concedes an average of 1.78 goals. At home, the hosts register 17.67 shots per game with 56% possession, compared with the visitors’ 13.33 shots and 48% possession, which should translate into control of the match. Both teams have collected 7 points from their last five matches, but Los Chankas have conceded 10 goals during that period, compared with just 6 for Sport Huancayo. Home advantage and the hosts’ clearly more solid defense point towards a Sport Huancayo victory.

The BTTS - Yes tip is primarily supported by Los Chankas’ weak defensive record, as they concede an average of 1.78 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in only 11% of matches. Sport Huancayo score an average of 1.82 goals at home, while Los Chankas also create a solid 1.38 xG per match, giving the visitors a strong basis to find the net. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of cases, with the hosts scoring an average of 1.6 goals and the visitors 1.4. In addition, Los Chankas conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game during this period, while their average attacking xG rose to 1.59. The main risk to the BTTS - Yes scenario is Huancayo’s strong home defense, which keeps a clean sheet in 45% of matches; however, the overall profile of recent form leans slightly towards both teams scoring.

Sport Huancayo score an average of 1.82 goals per home match, while Los Chankas concede as many as 1.78 goals away from home, clearly strengthening the outlook for goals from the hosts. The visitors score 1.11 goals on the road, whereas the hosts keep a clean sheet in 45% of matches, so I assess their attacking contribution more cautiously at 1.10. In their last five matches, both teams generated approximately 1.6 xG per game, while Los Chankas conceded 10 goals during this period, an average of 2.0 per match. At least two goals were scored in 89% of Los Chankas' away matches and in 55% of Sport Huancayo's home games, with neither team failing to score in any of their matches. Over 1.5 goals therefore has the strongest support from both the season profiles and current form, while the 2.5 line remains more finely balanced.

Sport Huancayo win 82% of their home matches, averaging 1.82 goals scored and just 0.91 conceded, while Los Chankas allow opponents an average of 1.78 goals away from home. The hosts have been leading at the break in 55% of their home games, avoiding defeat in all 11 such first halves, whereas the visitors have been trailing after 45 minutes in 33% of their away fixtures. Huancayo’s advantage is also evident before half-time: they score an average of 1.09 goals compared with Los Chankas’ 0.56, while conceding just 0.36 goals at home. After the break, the hosts score an average of 0.73 goals, while the visitors concede as many as 1.22, which favors maintaining or extending an early lead. The most likely outcome is therefore Sport Huancayo leading at half-time and winning at full-time: HT/FT 1/1.