Sportivo Carapeguá vs Paraguarí: match statistics

Sportivo Carapeguá have a clearly stronger home record: they win 50% of their matches, while Paraguarí win just 10% of their away games and lose as many as 60%. The hosts average 1.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score only 0.9 goals away from home and concede 1.7. Carapeguá are also more efficient, converting 15% of their shots compared with the opponents’ 8%, although Paraguarí register more shots on target per match, 4.2 to 2.9. The hosts’ defense restricts opponents to 1.02 xG, significantly lower than Paraguarí’s away defense, which allows opponents to create chances worth an average of 1.45 xG. The teams’ recent form is similar, with Carapeguá winning 3 of their last 5 matches and Paraguarí winning 2, but home advantage and the visitors’ poor away record favor the hosts.

The seasonal BTTS rate is 50% for both teams, but this is below the league average of 55%, offering no clear advantage to the scenario of goals from both sides. Sportivo Carapeguá recorded BTTS in only 20% of their last 5 matches, scoring and conceding an average of 1.0 goal per game. Paraguarí averages just 0.9 goals per season and fails to score in 40% of matches, although their recent run has been slightly more open, with BTTS at 60%. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 20% of matches, and given the visitors’ low scoring rate of 8%, the most likely scenario remains BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score. The attacking potential is moderate, as both teams have similar average xG figures of 1.40 and 1.41, but Sportivo’s recent results clearly reduce the chances of BTTS.

The 2.45-goal projection is based on Sportivo Carapeguá’s attack, which averages 1.2 goals, facing a weaker Paraguarí defense that concedes 1.7 goals per match. The visitors, meanwhile, score just 0.9 goals on average despite creating chances worth 1.41 xG, while the hosts concede an average of 1.0 goal. In their last five matches, Carapeguá recorded at least three goals in just 20% of games, compared with 40% for Paraguarí. Over the course of the season, the 3.5-goal line has been surpassed in only 10% of the hosts’ matches and 40% of the visitors’ matches, clearly supporting a lower-scoring outcome. Under 3.5 is therefore the strongest option, as even with the hosts holding the advantage, the data for both teams more often points to a match with a maximum of three goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sportivo Carapeguá win, as the hosts were level at the break in 70% of their matches, compared with just 40% for Paraguarí. Carapeguá score only 0.2 goals per match before half-time, but their opponents concede as many as 1.0 goals during this phase, which supports a cautious, evenly balanced opening with the possibility of a later turnaround. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.0 goals, compared with 0.5 for Paraguarí, while in their last five matches they conceded just 0.2 goals per game in the second half. The hosts' advantage is also evident across the season: they won 40% of their matches, compared with just 10% wins for the visitors, while Paraguarí lost 60% of their fixtures. Despite similar xG figures—1.40 for Carapeguá and 1.41 for Paraguarí—the visitors concede an average of 1.7 goals per match, making a home win after half-time the more likely outcome.