St. Johnstone vs Airdrieonians: match statistics

St. Johnstone are favorites to win: they have 58 goals scored this season versus Airdrieonians' 28 and sit 1st in the table compared to the visitors' 9th. At home the hosts average 1.94 goals and generate xG 1.87 per match, registering 15.81 shots (5.31 on target), while Airdrie on the road average 1.13 goals, have xG 1.18 and produce only 9.56 shots (3.69 on target). The hosts' defense also makes a difference — they concede 0.69 goals at home (xG against 0.80) with 50% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 1.25 goals away (xG against 1.63) and have only 31% clean sheets. Additionally, St. Johnstone average 2.2 points in their last 5 matches versus Airdrie's 1.4 and suffer only 6% defeats at home, while Airdrie lose 50% of their away games. Based on the superiority in shots, possession (63% vs 47%) and quality of chances (xG 1.87 vs 1.18), I back the home win.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 40% for St. Johnstone and 38% for Airdrieonians, both below the league average of 49%, indicating a lower tendency for Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches BTTS stands at 40% for both teams, but St. Johnstone have conceded only 3 goals in those five matches (0.6 per game) with recent xG against of 0.7, while Airdrie have scored 8 in their last 5 (1.6 per game) with xG_for of 1.42. Airdrie display higher shot conversion (12%) and average 3.69 shots on target, which increases their scoring likelihood; however their defensive instability (5 goals conceded in the last 5) combined with St. Johnstone’s solid defensive form argues against a reliable BTTS. Given these figures, I assess the probability of No Goal/clean sheet or only one side scoring as higher and recommend a 'BTTS - No' (60%) over 'BTTS - Yes' (40%).

The xG-based model shows St. Johnstone with xG 1.15 and conceding xG 1.34, while Airdrieonians have xG 1.18 and concede xG 1.63; this yields expected goals of 1.39 for the home side and 1.26 for the visitors (total 2.65). Seasonal stats confirm a moderate propensity for goals: Over 1.5 occurs in 53% of St. Johnstone’s matches and 69% of Airdrie’s, while Over 2.5 is 40% and 44% respectively. The share of matches above 3.5 is low: 20% for the home team and 19% for the visitors, meaning roughly 80–81% of season matches finish Under 3.5. Given the expected 2.65 goals (closer to 2–3) and the historical 80–81% Under 3.5 rate, the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (I estimate ~75%). For comparison I rate Over 1.5 at around 74% (driven by xG and high Over 1.5 frequency), and Over 2.5 at about 49% (between the seasonal 40–44% and the xG model).

The most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time win for Airdrieonians (X/2). Home sides score only 0.13 goals on average by half-time versus 0.5 for visitors; St. Johnstone lead at the break in just 7% of matches, while half-time draws for the hosts occur in 53% of cases (GoalsHT: 11 vs 18 in favor of the visitors). Airdrie are more efficient — xG almost identical (1.18 vs 1.15) but a conversion rate of 12% versus the hosts’ 7%, and superior second-half metrics: 38% second-half wins compared to 20% for St. Johnstone and an average of 0.63 goals scored after the break versus 0.53. Over the season the away side also have a higher win share (31% vs 13% for the home team), which increases the chance of a turnaround after half-time; therefore X/2 carries the highest weight, with alternatives being X/X and 2/2.