St. Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: match statistics

St. Johnstone have scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game) and conceded 4 (0.8 per game), while Kilmarnock have scored 5 (1.0 per game) and conceded just 2 (0.4 per game). The hosts recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (WWWLD), and the visitors 3 wins and 2 draws (WDWWD), meaning Kilmarnock are unbeaten in their last five. Average points per game over the last five stand at 2.0 for St. Johnstone and 2.2 for Kilmarnock, giving the visitors a slight edge in points efficiency. Kilmarnock’s main advantage is defensive (2 goals conceded in 5 matches vs 4 for the hosts), while St. Johnstone have a clear offensive edge (10 goals scored). On this basis I give a slight advantage to Kilmarnock, although a draw and both teams scoring are realistic scenarios.

Seasonal stats are empty, so I rely on the last 5 matches: St. Johnstone has BTTS 40% and averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded (total 10 scored and 4 conceded), while Kilmarnock has BTTS 20% and averages 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded (5 scored, 2 conceded). St. Johnstone’s attack generates 1.88 xG per match versus 1.41 xG against Kilmarnock, giving the home side an advantage in chance creation (1.88 vs 1.41). Despite this advantage, Kilmarnock realistically scores only 1.0 goal per game and has had just 1 of 5 matches with Goal/Goal, and the low average conceded 0.4 indicates they rarely allow opponents to score. Therefore the combination of BTTS frequency (40% vs 20%), goal difference (2.0 vs 1.0) and xG (1.88 vs 1.41) gives a stronger signal for No Goal; I estimate a 30% chance for BTTS - Yes and 70% for No Goal, selecting No Goal as the best pick.

I estimate total goals at 2.68 (1.65 for St. Johnstone, 1.03 for Kilmarnock): the average of home offensive xG 1.88 and away defensive xG 1.41 yields 1.65, and the average of away offensive xG 1.35 and home defensive xG 0.70 yields 1.03. In the last 5 matches St. Johnstone scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and conceded 4 (0.8 per match), while Kilmarnock scored 5 and conceded 2 (1.0 and 0.4 per match), which confirms the home side's offensive advantage. A Poisson model for a mean of 2.68 gives roughly a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals, about 50% for Over 2.5 and around 28% for Over 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally St. Johnstone had 40% of matches with Over 2.5 goals in their last 5 fixtures, and Kilmarnock 20%, so while Over 2.5 is possible, Over 1.5 is the safer pick.

St. Johnstone have averaged 1.0 goals by half-time and conceded 0.4 in their last five matches, leading at the break in 40% of games, while Kilmarnock average just 0.4 goals by half-time and see as many as 80% of matches level at the break. Over 90 minutes St. Johnstone average 2.0 goals per game and have won 60% of those five fixtures, and Kilmarnock average 1.0 goal per game with a similar 60% win rate; however, this does not offset the visitors’ lower first-half productivity. Additionally, the home side have scored 7 first-half goals in the last five matches versus Kilmarnock’s 3, with first-half goals per game of 1.4 vs 0.6 in favour of St. Johnstone, indicating they more frequently dictate the tempo from the start. Based on these figures the most likely scenario is the home side leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes (1/1) — I assign it the highest probability at 24%; alternatively a half-time draw and a home win (X/1) is realistic at 20% given the relatively high share of draws at the break for both teams. I assign lower probability to turnarounds and full-time draws because the visitors have a low first-half goals average (0.4) and only 0.6 after the break, whereas the hosts score on average 1.0 goal in the second half, increasing the likelihood that St. Johnstone will decide the outcome in the second half.