St. Pauli vs Mainz 05: match statistics
St. Pauli vs Mainz 05: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
St. Pauli played against Mainz 05 in Bundesliga (Germany). The game was played on May 3, 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Recent form
St. Pauli has 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 0.40 points per game. Mainz 05 has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.
Scoring records
St. Pauli scores 0.84 goals per game and allows 1.71. Mainz 05 scores 1.26 and allows 1.58. Games in this league average 3.23 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 52% of St. Pauli's games and 61% of Mainz 05's. The Over 2.5 rates are 52% and 52%, compared with league averages of 61% for BTTS and 64% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Mainz 05 has the higher season xG average, 1.39 to 1.20 per game. St. Pauli takes 10.3 shots per game, while Mainz 05 takes 11.7.
First-half and second-half trends
St. Pauli leads at halftime in 19% of its games and scores 0.48 goals per game after halftime. Mainz 05 leads at halftime in 32% and scores 0.65 after halftime.
When the teams score
St. Pauli's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). For Mainz 05, it is minutes 76-90+ (9 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Bundesliga games average 3.23 goals. Both teams score in 61% of games, and 64% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a Mainz 05 win due to their clear advantage in efficiency and offense: Mainz have scored 39 goals this season versus St. Pauli’s 26 and have 6 goals in the last 5 matches compared to the hosts’ 3. Although St. Pauli at home averages 10.67 shots and 4.4 on target per match (xG for 1.31), Mainz away record shows 9.8 shots and 3.73 on target with xG for 1.21, but a higher conversion rate 13% vs 9% and a lower share of matches without a goal 27% vs 40% favor the visitors. In the last 5 fixtures Mainz have 0.8 points per game with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, while St. Pauli have only 0.4 points with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, indicating weaker form for the hosts. Defensively both teams are vulnerable — St. Pauli concede 1.73 goals at home on average, Mainz 1.80 away, and xG against 1.84 for Mainz suggests opponents create more quality chances, however the visitors’ superior finishing should compensate. Based on this I assess Mainz win probability at about 55%, draw 25% and home win 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show high BTTS rates this season: St. Pauli 56% and Mainz 67%, averaging around 61%, matching the league average of 61%. Offensively they score at similar rates (St. Pauli 1.25, Mainz 1.27), and xG reflects realistic scoring chances — St. Pauli generates xG 1.55 while Mainz concedes xG 1.84; conversely Mainz generates xG 1.21 and St. Pauli concedes xG 1.34. Clean sheets are rare: St. Pauli keep them in 13% of matches, Mainz in only 7%, which lowers the probability that either side fails to score. In the last 5 matches the BTTS rate is 60% for St. Pauli and 40% for Mainz, but defenses have been weak — St. Pauli conceded an average of 2.2 goals, Mainz 2.0. Based on this I project BTTS - Yes as the stronger signal with a 70% vs 30% assessment for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG: St. Pauli has xG_for 1.55 and Mainz xG_against 1.84, which averages to about 1.70 expected goals for the home side; Mainz has xG_for 1.21 and St. Pauli xG_against 1.34, yielding about 1.28 for the away side, total ≈2.98. Season stats show Over 1.5 occurred in 69% of St. Pauli’s matches and 93% of Mainz’s, and the league average goals per game is 3.20, so the teams’ profiles point toward an open, high-scoring game. Both sides have low clean sheet probability: St. Pauli 13% and Mainz 7%, while BTTS occurs in 56% and 67% of their matches respectively, increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.98 gives roughly 80% probability for Over 1.5, about 57% for Over 2.5 and around 35% for Over 3.5, therefore the data indicates Over 1.5 as the best bet. Additionally, Mainz posts a higher shot conversion rate of 13% with an average of 3.73 shots on target versus St. Pauli’s 9% and 4.19 shots on target, which could boost their efficiency in chances.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
St. Pauli creates significantly more first-half chances: average xG 1.55 versus 1.21 for Mainz, average shots 13.56 versus 9.8 and 4.19 shots on target versus 3.73, which correlates with the hosts leading at the break in 38% of matches. Mainz, however, makes up for it with efficiency (conversion rate 13% vs 9% for St. Pauli) and in the last 5 matches averaged 0.8 points in second halves versus 0.2 points for the hosts, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. Draws are also common for both teams (season draw rate: 31% for St. Pauli and 33% for Mainz), and the proportion of matches with goals for both teams is high (BTTS 56% and 67%), so the scenario of the hosts leading at half-time and the match ending level after 90 minutes is consistent with the data. Additionally, in all Mainz matches the second half featured at least one goal (100% over 0.5 in second halves), therefore I select HT/FT 1/X as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| St. Pauli | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Mainz 05 is 250% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / game - St. Pauli · 1.4 pts / game - Mainz 05
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mainz 05 is 50% better for: goals scored per game.
0.84 goals / game - St. Pauli · 1.26 goals / game - Mainz 05
Mainz 05 is 8% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.71 goals / game - St. Pauli · 1.58 goals / game - Mainz 05
St. Pauli scores in 58% of games (18 of 31 meczów), while Mainz 05 keeps a clean sheet in 10% (3 of 31 meczów).
Mainz 05 scores in 68% of games (21 of 31 meczów), while St. Pauli keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 31 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - St. Pauli
Over / Under - Mainz 05
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mainz 05 is 32% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / game - St. Pauli · 1.32 pts / game - Mainz 05
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
St. Pauli - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 19% of games and wins 19%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Mainz 05 - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 32% of games and wins 26%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 0% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -8 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -8 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
St. Pauli
Mainz 05
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| St. Pauli | Liga | Mainz 05 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▼ 2.55 | 3.23 | ▼ 2.84 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 61% | • 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 64% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 21% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 74% | 77% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 81% | 85% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from St. Pauli's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Mainz 05. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?
The Bundesliga match finished St. Pauli 1:2 Mainz 05. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?
St. Pauli score 0.84 goals per game on average and Mainz 05 1.26. The Bundesliga average is 3.23 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 52% of St. Pauli's matches and 61% of Mainz 05's.
What form are St. Pauli and Mainz 05 in?
Over the last 5 games St. Pauli have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Mainz 05 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for St. Pauli vs Mainz 05?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.