Stade Nyonnais vs Wil: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Wil scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches (1.8 per game) versus Stade Nyonnais’ 3 goals (0.6 per game) and averages 1.4 points per match over the last 5 fixtures compared to 0.2 for the hosts. The hosts have conceded as many as 15 goals in their last five matches (3.0 per game), while Wil conceded 8 (1.6 per game), highlighting clear defensive issues for Stade Nyonnais. Wil generates more chances: away xG 1.50 vs home xG 1.27 for the hosts, averaging 13.06 shots and 4.69 on target per game versus 11.44 and 3.75 for the hosts. The visitors’ drawback is low efficiency away (conversion 6% and 44% of away games without a goal) while the hosts at home have a 12% conversion and FTS 19%, however the superiority in chance creation and better recent form favor Wil.

The BTTS option looks more likely as both teams produce similar xG: Stade Nyonnais 1.52 vs Wil 1.50, with the league average at 2.94 goals per match. Stade Nyonnais has a season BTTS rate of 50% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Wil has 44% seasonally and 40% in the last 5; combined with the league BTTS rate of 54% this supports the Goal/Goal selection. Wil averages 1.8 goals in the last 5 matches (9 goals) with a recent xG of 1.93, and Stade Nyonnais has conceded an average of 3.0 goals in that period (15 conceded), so the visitors have a clear chance to score. Although the home side have averaged only 0.6 goals in their last five matches, their seasonal shot conversion of 9% vs Wil’s 6% and the fact that Wil concedes xG 1.76 indicate the hosts can also find the net. Therefore I assess BTTS as more probable (~62% vs 38%).

Based on xG I expect a total of 3.10 goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.64 (attacking xG 1.52 vs opponent conceded xG 1.76) and Wil 1.46 (attacking xG 1.50 vs hosts conceded xG 1.42). Seasonally Over 1.5 occurred in 63% of home matches and 81% of away matches, with the league average at 2.94 goals per game, which strongly supports at least two goals. Hosts average 13.38 shots (4.25 on target), visitors 13.06 (4.69 on target), with average goals conceded 1.56 and 1.50 respectively, increasing the likelihood of goals. Considering the expected total of 3.10 and seasonal Over 2.5 rates: 50% for hosts and 44% for visitors (league 57%), I estimate the chance of Over 2.5 at about 62% and Over 3.5 at about 34% (visitors have seasonally Over 3.5 in only 25% of matches). The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I assess 85%), therefore I back the 'over' on the 1.5 line.

At half-time a draw is more likely: the hosts were level at the break in 9 matches (56%) and kept a clean sheet at half-time in 63% of games, with an average of 0.63 first-half goals for the home side and 0.44 for the visitors. After the break Stade Nyonnais scores more often — averaging 0.63 goals in the second half and with at least one goal after half-time in 75% of their matches, while Wil has 56% in this metric. Over the season the hosts average 1.25 goals versus 0.81 for the guests, have a slightly higher xG (1.52 vs 1.50) and a higher win rate (31% vs 19%), which supports them being the favorite to win after 90 minutes. It should be noted, however, that in the last 5 matches the hosts did not lead at the break (0%), while the visitors led in 60% of their last 5 games, which adds uncertainty to the first half. As a result the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), with alternatives being a draw after 90 minutes (X/X) or the home side leading from half-time to the end (1/1).