Stal Kraśnik vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: match statistics

Stal Kraśnik holds the edge in recent form and chance creation: 2 wins in the last 5 matches and an average of 1.4 points per game, with 6 goals scored versus Siarka’s 4 in the same period. At home Stal produces on average 10.4 shots, 3.8 on target and xG 1.24, while Siarka away records 8.86 shots, 3.29 on target and xG 1.15, indicating more opportunities for the hosts. Conversely, Siarka has a superior season-long offensive record (51 goals vs 35 for Stal) and higher shot conversion on the road (13% vs 10%), plus fewer defeats this season (10 vs 17), so they can finish chances. Stal’s defense is vulnerable — hosts concede 1.67 goals at home on average and have 0% clean sheets, while Siarka concede 1.4 away with 20% clean sheets, pointing to an open, high-scoring game. Considering Stal’s better recent form and greater chance volume but Siarka’s season advantages, I predict a narrow home victory.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% each, versus a league average of 57%, which inherently raises the likelihood of both teams scoring. Stal Kraśnik averages 2.0 goals scored and concedes 1.27 per match, while Siarka scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 — both sides therefore create and allow goals. Clean sheets are rare: 27% for the home side and 20% for the away side, and in the last 5 matches both teams register BTTS at 60%; over that period Stal scored 6 and conceded 5, Siarka scored 4 and conceded 6. xG and shot stats support this — Stal posts 1.47 xG and 5.33 shots on target per game, Siarka 1.15 xG and 3.29 on-target, with Stal’s conversion rate at 19% versus Siarka’s 13%, suggesting both teams can turn chances into goals. Considering the 60% BTTS rates for both teams, low clean sheet percentages, comparable xG and recent form, I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 72% versus 28% for No.

Based on xG I expect a total of around 2.82 goals: Stal Kraśnik about 1.45 goals (Stal avg xG 1.47 and Siarka avg xG conceded 1.43 → (1.47+1.43)/2=1.45), and Siarka about 1.37 goals (Siarka avg xG 1.15 and Stal avg xG conceded 1.58 → (1.15+1.58)/2=1.37). A Poisson model with λ=2.82 gives probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) of about 77%, which correlates with seasonal Over1.5 rates: Stal 87% and Siarka 80%. For the 2.5 line the model forecasts Over ≈53% (seasonally Stal 67%, Siarka 60%), and for 3.5 Over ≈31% (seasonally Stal 53%, Siarka 33%), so the edge diminishes at higher lines. Additionally both teams had matches with both teams scoring in 60% of fixtures; Stal averages 5.33 shots on target with 19% conversion, and Siarka 3.29 shots on target with 13% conversion — this increases the chance of at least two goals and supports the Over 1.5 selection.

Stal Kraśnik possesses a clear offensive edge and better form: seasonally they score an average of 2.0 goals per match versus 1.4 for Siarka, have higher xG (1.47 vs 1.15) and more shots on target (5.33 vs 3.29), which indicates greater likelihood of taking the lead at the break. At half-time Stal averages 1.0 goals scored and concedes only 0.27, while Siarka records 0.79 scored and 0.5 conceded in the first 45 minutes; Stal have been leading at half-time in 36% of their matches. Siarka’s form is unimpressive — over the last 5 matches they have no wins (0% win rate) and average 0.6 points in that period, so their chances of executing a turnaround after the break are lower. At the same time both teams have a high share of matches with both teams scoring (60% each), and the probability of at least one goal in the second half is 91% for Stal and 86% for Siarka, so the visitors can score after the break but rarely fully reverse the result. Therefore the most reliable scenario is Stal leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) — I assign it a 24% probability, with alternatives X/1 at 20% and X/X at 16%.