Stal Kraśnik vs Świdniczanka Świdnik: match statistics

Stal Kraśnik scores at home on average 1.5 goals per match with an average xG of 1.24 and concedes 1.63 goals, while Świdniczanka away scores 1.0 goals with xG 1.13 and concedes 2.75 goals per match. In the last 5 fixtures Stal has scored 8 goals and holds a 2-3-0 record (1.8 pts/match), whereas Świdniczanka has scored 7 goals with a 1-1-3 record and 0.8 pts/match. The visitors have conceded 13 goals in their last 5 matches and have a 75% away loss rate this season, versus Stal’s 44% home loss rate, which clearly favors the home side. Additionally, the hosts average 10.4 shots per game with a 10% conversion rate, while the visitors only average 8.8 shots and 8% conversion, so Stal creates more high-quality chances. Although neither team keeps clean sheets (0%) and both teams’ games are typically scoring affairs (average total goals 3.13 for the home side and 3.75 for the visitors), I expect a Stal win in an open match.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 75% for Stal Kraśnik and 69% for Świdniczanka Świdnik, versus a league average of 59%, indicating a strong trend toward goals from both sides. Both teams have 0% clean sheets and concede on average 2.06 goals (Stal) and 2.75 goals (Świdniczanka) per match, with Świdniczanka conceding 13 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.6). In the last 5 matches Stal had 100% BTTS (scored 8, conceded 5), while Świdniczanka had 60% BTTS (scored 7, conceded 13), which together strongly supports BTTS = Yes. xG shows similar attacking potential: xG_for 1.07 (Stal) vs 1.13 (Świdniczanka), with xG_against 1.24 vs 1.93, so both sides create chances and allow goal-scoring opportunities. Additionally, matches with over 2.5 goals occur in 69% (Stal) and 81% (Świdniczanka) of games, and the over2.5+BTTS combination appears in 63% for both, therefore I recommend BTTS = Yes.

The xG model gives Stal about 1.50 xG (1.07 home attack xG vs 1.93 conceded by Świdniczanka) and Świdniczanka about 1.19 xG (1.13 away attack xG vs 1.24 conceded by Stal), totaling approximately 2.69 expected goals. Both teams have a high share of matches over 1.5 goals this season: 88% for Stal and 88% for Świdniczanka, while both teams register BTTS in 75% and 69% of games respectively, which strongly supports a scenario of at least two goals. Season-long Over 2.5 rates are 69% (Stal) and 81% (Świdniczanka), averaging ~75%, and Świdniczanka conceded on average 2.6 goals in their last 5 matches, so I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at around 74%. For the 3.5 line, seasonal Over rates are 31% and 56% (avg ~44%), however the combined expected xG of 2.69 and the fact Stal conceded on average 1.0 goal in their last 5 matches incline me toward a higher probability of Under 3.5 (about 60%). Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (both teams 88% on the season and 2.69 expected goals), therefore the recommendation is to play Over at the 1.5 line.

Both teams tend to concede goals before the break: the home side concedes on average 1.09 goals in the first half and scores 0.45, while the visitors concede 1.17 and score 0.33; a draw at half-time occurs in 27% of the home team’s matches and 25% of the visitors’. The second half is Stal’s strength — the hosts score on average 0.91 goals after the break and average 1.73 points in second halves, winning 55% of second halves, whereas Świdniczanka scores only 0.58 goals after the break, averages 0.67 points and wins 17% of second halves. Additionally, Stal is more efficient with fewer shots: a 15% shot conversion rate from 5.64 shots versus Świdniczanka’s 8% from 8.8 shots, and in the final minutes (76–90) the hosts have scored 6 goals compared to the visitors’ 1, which favors a turnaround after the break. In the last 5 matches the hosts’ form is dwwdd and the visitors’ is wllld, and half-time draws occurred in 40% of the last 5 games for both teams, so it is logical to expect a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes. Therefore the most reliable signal is X/1 — draw at half-time and home win, while the variants draw/draw and home leading at half-time are less likely.