Stal Kraśnik vs Wiślanie Jaśkowice: match statistics

I back a win for Wiślan Jaśkowice. They have 13 wins this season versus Stal Kraśnik’s 5 and a goal difference of 46–28. In the last 5 matches the visitors scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and have no away matches without a goal (0% such games), while Stal Kraśnik managed only 1 goal in their last 5 fixtures (0.2 per match) and collected 0 points in that period. Wiślan average 5.2 shots on target away with an 18% conversion, whereas Stal at home register 3.33 on-target shots and a 6% conversion, despite similar total shot counts (12 vs 11.4). Defensively Stal concede 1.75 goals per home game and shipped 11 goals in the last 5 (2.2 per match), while Wiślan concede 1.67 away and 7 in their last 5 (1.4 per match); the visitors’ away xG is 1.49 versus the home side’s 1.31, confirming higher quality chances created by Wiślan. Considering Stal’s 0 points in their last five matches versus 1.2 points for Wiślan and a 67% away win rate for the visitors versus 33% home wins for the hosts, the statistical edge favors the visitors’ victory.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 62% for the home side and 75% for the away side (league average 56%), providing a strong signal for BTTS - Yes. Wisłanie average 2.25 goals per match (xG 1.49), while Stal has a seasonal xG of 1.65 with goals scored averaging 1.46, so both teams create chances (an average of 5.11 and 5.2 shots on target respectively). A counterpoint is Stal’s form in the last 5 matches: only 0.2 goals per game and 20% BTTS, whereas the visitors have 1.4 goals and 40% BTTS in that period; at the same time Stal concedes 2.2 goals on average in the last 5, which increases the likelihood of the away side scoring. Considering the high seasonal BTTS (62%/75%), low clean sheet expected rates for both teams (23%/25%) and the very high percentage of away matches over 2.5 goals (92%), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 66% vs 34%.

I back the Over side because offensive season signals are strong: Stal records Over 1.5 in 85% of matches and Wiślanie in 92%, averaging ~89% which supports a high probability for Over 1.5 (≈90%). xG analysis (1.65 home attack vs 1.11 away defense and 1.49 away attack vs 1.13 home defense) yields a simple average of 1.38 xG for Stal and 1.31 xG for Wiślan (total 2.69), but the last 5 matches change the picture: Stal have recently 0.2 xG and scored 1 goal in five games, while Wiślanie have 1.69 xG and scored 7 goals, so I adjusted expected goals to 1.15 (home) and 1.70 (away), total 2.85. Seasonally Over 2.5 occurs in 54% of Stal’s matches and 92% of Wiślan’s matches, with a league average of 60%; combining these figures with the fact Stal conceded 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game) and Wiślanie scored 7 (1.4 per game), I raise the probability of Over 2.5 to about 63%. Additionally, Wiślanie have scored 46 goals this season, and the share of matches where both teams scored is 62% for Stal and 75% for Wiślan, which increases the chance of BTTS and makes Over 1.5 the safest line to play.

Half-time data clearly favor the visitors: Wiślanie led at the break in 5 matches (56%), while Stal did so in only 1 (14%); average first-half goals are 0.89 for the visitors versus 0.14 for the hosts. Visitors win 67% of matches compared to 38% for the hosts and accumulated 16 points by half-time versus Stal’s 6; on average Wiślanie earn 1.78 points at the break against Stal’s 0.86. Although the hosts have a slightly higher xG (1.65 vs 1.49), the visitors’ shot conversion rate of 18% (vs 13%) translates into more goals over the season: 2.25 for the visitors vs 1.46 for Stal, which increases the chance of maintaining a lead. Endings and starts of matches also favor Wiślanie — they scored 3 goals in minutes 0–15 and have 89% of matches with at least one goal by half-time — while the hosts have lost all of their last 5 matches. Therefore the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at the break and winning by full-time (HT/FT 2/2); I treat this selection as the primary pick.