Stargard Szczeciński vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Zawisza Bydgoszcz is the clear favorite: 19 wins this season versus 9 for Stargard and a goal record of 58 scored and 18 conceded, while Stargard has 43 scored and 46 conceded, indicating significantly better efficiency and defensive stability for the visitors. Recent form amplifies this gap — Zawisza has won 4 of the last 5 (4-0-1) and averages 2.4 points per game in that period, whereas Stargard has failed to win any of the five (0-1-4) and averages only 0.2 points per game. In terms of quality of chances the visitors have the edge: Zawisza xG is 2.01 versus 1.51 for Stargard, and average shots 18 vs 12.11 show Zawisza creates far more opportunities despite a lower conversion rate (6% vs 13%). Defensively the difference is material — Stargard concedes 1.77 goals at home on average and conceded 14 goals in the last 5 matches (2.8 per game), while Zawisza concedes 0.92 away and conceded only 3 goals in the last 5 (0.6 per game); clean sheets also 46% for the visitors versus 15% for the hosts. Considering 2.4 vs 0.2 points per game in the last 5, xG 2.01–1.51 and the goal records 58–18 vs 43–46, I project a win for the visitors; I estimate approximately a 72% chance of Zawisza winning, 18% draw and 10% for Stargard.

Seasonal signals argue against BTTS: the home side has a seasonal BTTS rate of only 36% and keeps a clean sheet in 64% of matches, averaging 2.57 goals scored and 0.43 conceded at home. However, the last 5 matches reverse this trend — the hosts have 80% BTTS in the last 5 and conceded 14 goals (avg 2.8 per game), while the visitors scored 10 and conceded 3 (avg 2.0 and 0.6). xG shows both teams create similar chances (xG_for 1.99 for the hosts vs 2.01 for the guests; xG_against 1.07 vs 1.12), and the hosts have higher shot efficiency (conversion 14% vs 6%) and more shots on target (7.08 vs 5.5), which increases the real likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering the hosts' poor defensive form in recent matches and the visitors' strong scoring form, the short-term signal favors BTTS "Yes", although the hosts' seasonal figures (64% clean sheets) limit confidence. Therefore I propose a 60% allocation to "Yes" and 40% to "No" as the most balanced choice.

An xG-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for Stargard (home attack average xG 1.99 versus xG typically conceded by away teams: 1.12) and 1.54 for Zawisza (away attack average xG 2.01 versus xG typically conceded by home teams: 1.07), yielding approximately 3.10 total expected goals. Seasonally Stargard scores 2.57 goals per match, but their 5-match form drops to 1.2, while Zawisza has a seasonal 1.69 goals per match and a 5-match average of 2.0. The hosts register 7.08 on-target shots on average with a conversion rate of 14%, and the visitors 5.5 on-target shots with a 6% conversion, indicating greater efficiency from Stargard from available chances. Seasonal over 2.5 rates are 50% for Stargard and 38% for Zawisza (league average 56%), and with a combined xG around 3.10 the Poisson model gives roughly an 82% probability for Over 1.5 and about 60% for Over 2.5. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (82%), and I recommend a wager on Over 1.5.

The hosts are clear favorites: at home they win 86% of matches and average 2.57 goals per game compared to 1.69 for the away side, while the average points at home are 2.71 versus 1.85 for Zawisza. At half-time the hosts led in 10 matches (83%) and score on average 1.58 goals by the break while conceding only 0.17, whereas the visitors average 0.85 scored and 0.46 conceded by half-time. Although the teams’ xG is similar (1.99 vs 2.01), the hosts have a much better conversion rate (14% vs 6%) and more shots on target (7.08 vs 5.5), which increases the likelihood they will convert their chances earlier. However, one must account for the hosts’ poor form in the last five matches (L L D L L, 0% wins) and the visitors’ strong run (W W L W W, 80% wins), so I assign a significant probability to scenarios with a draw at the break or a visitors’ turnaround after half-time. As a result, the strongest signal is the hosts leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes (1/1).