Stilon Gorzów vs Ślęza Wrocław: match statistics

Stilon Gorzów has won 4 of their last 5 matches and is averaging 2.4 points over that period, scoring 7 goals (1.4 per match) and conceding only 2 (0.4 per match). Ślęza Wrocław has 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5, averaging 1.8 points, scoring 10 goals (2.0 per match) and conceding as many as 12 (2.4 per match). Stilon’s main advantage is defence — the home side concedes an average of 0.4 goals per match versus 2.4 for the visitors, which gives them better control of results despite a weaker attack (1.4 vs 2.0 goals per match). Ślęza is capable of creating more scoring opportunities (10 goals in 5 matches), but their susceptibility to concessions (12 conceded in 5 matches) increases the risk of defeat away from home. Considering Stilon’s superior points efficiency and defensive stability, I predict a home win; estimated probabilities are 62% home win, 18% draw and 20% Ślęza win.

I back No BTTS because Stilon concedes only 0.4 goals on average in the last 5 matches and only 20% of those games ended Goal/Goal — in 4 of the 5 fixtures the hosts’ opponent failed to score. Ślęza averages 2.0 goals scored per match but concedes 2.4 goals per match (10 scored vs 12 conceded in 5 matches), showing offensive capability but defensive instability. Additionally, Stilon generates just 0.19 xG per match in this sample, indicating the hosts rarely create clear chances and may struggle to exploit the opponent’s defensive weaknesses. Considering form ('wlwww' for the hosts vs 'wlwwl' for the visitors) and the fact Stilon has scored 7 and conceded only 2 in the last 5 matches, a scenario where at least one team fails to score looks more likely. Therefore I assess a 35% probability for BTTS = Yes and 65% for BTTS = No, with a recommended bet of 'no'.

Stilon has averaged 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over the last 5 matches, while Ślęza has averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded; the combined average is 3.4 goals per game. Additionally, 80% of Ślęza’s last 5 matches finished over 2.5 goals, compared to only 20% for Stilon — indicating greater volatility and a tendency toward higher-scoring games from the away side. Looking at xG, Stilon posts a low xG of 0.19 despite scoring 7 goals in 5 matches (suggesting a temporary overperformance in finishing), whereas Ślęza has an xG of 1.29 and scores 2.0 goals on average, confirming offensive pressure. Based on this I project approximately 1.40 goals for the home team and 2.00 for the away team (total 3.40) and recommend backing Over 2.5 goals, since the 3.4 average and Ślęza’s 80% >2.5 rate provide the strongest signal. I assign a 78% probability to Over 2.5, Over 1.5 is almost certain at 95%, and Over 3.5 is moderately likely at 57%.

Stilon Gorzów averages 1.4 goals scored and 0.4 conceded in the last 5 matches, yielding 2.4 points per game and an 80% win rate, while Ślęza averages 2.0 scored and 2.4 conceded with 1.8 points per game and a 60% win rate. At half-time Stilon registers 0.0 goals according to available data (last 5), so their 1.4 goals per game come after the break, indicating the home side rarely holds a lead at the break. Ślęza led at half-time in 25% of the last 5 matches, were level in 25% and trailing in 50%, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded by half-time, which shows the visitors are vulnerable to conceding before the break. Considering Stilon’s superior form and lower average goals conceded (0.4 vs 2.4) and the absence of home goals at half-time, the strongest signal is a draw at half-time followed by a home victory at full-time. Therefore I select X/1 as the pick and assign it the highest probability of 34% (1/1 20% and X/X 16% as the main alternatives).