Stjarnan vs Keflavík: match statistics

Stjarnan have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 2.0 goals with an xG of 2.01, while Keflavík record 1.5 goals and an xG of 1.60 away from home. The hosts also register more shots on target, averaging 6.88 per match compared with the visitors’ 4.50, and their 58% possession could allow them to control the game. However, both defenses are highly prone to errors, with Stjarnan conceding 2.5 goals per home match and Keflavík 2.75 away, while neither side has kept a clean sheet. Keflavík have shown slightly better recent points form, averaging 1.4 points per match over their last five league games compared with Stjarnan’s 1.2, but the hosts have created higher-quality chances. Home advantage and Stjarnan’s greater attacking strength point towards a narrow victory for the hosts, although the match should be open and high-scoring.

The signal for goals from both sides is very strong: Stjarnan have recorded BTTS in 75% of their matches, while Keflavík have done so in as many as 100%, compared with a league average of 72%. Keflavík have failed to keep a single clean sheet and concede an average of 2.75 goals per match, which clearly supports the prospect of a home goal, with the hosts’ xG standing at 1.80. However, the visitors are dangerous in attack, scoring an average of 1.50 goals, while in their last five matches they scored 2.2 goals per game with an xG of 1.98. Stjarnan’s defense remains vulnerable, having conceded 14 goals in their last five league fixtures, an average of 2.8 per match. In addition, BTTS landed in 100% of Keflavík’s last five appearances, so a scenario in which both teams score is more likely than BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score—not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

The match profile is clearly goal-oriented: the hosts create an average of 1.80 xG, while the visitors produce 1.60 xG, supporting a forecast of 3.40 total goals. Keflavík have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match and concede an average of 2.75 goals per game, while Stjarnan register as many as 17.75 shots at home, including 5.0 on target. In their last five matches, both teams recorded games with at least three goals in 80% of cases, while their defenses conceded 2.8 and 2.4 goals per game, respectively. The Over 1.5 goals line was covered in 75% of Stjarnan’s matches and in all of Keflavík’s matches, making it the strongest and safest signal. Additionally, the Icelandic league averages 3.94 goals per match, with 71% of its games ending with at least three goals.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Stjarnan win, as the hosts were level at the break in 4 of their 8 matches this season and in 60% of their last five fixtures. Keflavík, however, have clear defensive problems over the full 90 minutes: they concede an average of 2.75 goals, have kept no clean sheets and have lost 63% of their matches. Stjarnan create more chances, averaging 17.75 shots compared with their opponents’ 13.25, while their xG stands at 1.80 against 1.78 xG conceded by Keflavík. The visitors have recently been more dangerous before the break, scoring an average of 0.8 goals in the first half across their last five matches compared with Stjarnan’s 0.2, which supports a cautious draw at half-time. After the interval, Keflavík’s defensive weakness should become more apparent, particularly as the team conceded as many as 8 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, making a late advantage for the hosts the most logical scenario.