Stockport County vs Wycombe Wanderers: match statistics

Stockport has a clear advantage in attack and home ball control: the hosts score 1.63 goals per match on average and have xG 1.60 with 57% possession, while Wycombe away average only 0.90 goals and xG 1.36 with 53% possession. The hosts also create more chances — on average 13.84 shots and 4.63 on target at home with a 12% conversion rate, versus Wycombe’s 11.9 shots and 3.7 on target and 8% conversion, which translates into higher efficiency for Stockport. Defensively Stockport concedes 1.16 goals at home and fails to score in only 11% of matches, whereas Wycombe concedes 1.25 goals away and fail to score in 30% of away games; Stockport’s home goal difference is +9, while Wycombe have -7 on the road. Form confirms this edge: in the last 5 matches Stockport has collected 10 points (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) — averaging 2.0 points per match, and Wycombe 6 points (2 wins, 3 losses) — averaging 1.2 points. Considering the higher xG (1.60 vs 1.36), more shots on target (4.63 vs 3.7) and lower share of matches without scoring (11% vs 30%), I tip the hosts to win; I assess probabilities as 65% for Stockport, 20% for a draw and 15% for Wycombe.

Approximate probability that both teams will score can be estimated as 85% (Stockport scores in 85% of matches, 100%-15%) × 70% (Wycombe scores in 70% of matches, 100%-30%) = 59.5%, roughly 60%. This is supported by combined xG: home xG 1.63, away xG 1.36 (total 2.99 xG), and their xG against 1.08 + 1.37 = 2.45, indicating over 2 expected goals in the match. Seasonal profiles are mixed — Stockport averages 2.05 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in 40% of games, while Wycombe scores 0.90 goals away and fails to score in 30% of fixtures, which weakens the BTTS case. Stockport also creates more opportunities (5.6 shots on target vs 3.7) and has a better conversion rate (15% vs 8%), but Wycombe have averaged 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches (9 goals in 5), while Stockport scored 8 in 5, and recent BTTS in the last 5 is 60% for the home side and 40% for the away. Overall, the product of scoring probabilities, combined xG and recent form tilt the assessment toward Both Teams To Score, so I propose 62% for YES (BTTS - Yes) and 38% for NO, recommendation: yes.

Based on xG, expected goals total about 2.72: Stockport 1.50 = (1.63 + 1.37)/2 and Wycombe 1.22 = (1.36 + 1.08)/2. A Poisson model with λ=2.72 yields ~75% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~51% for Over 2.5 and ~29% for Over 3.5. Additionally, Stockport averages 2.05 goals per game with a shot conversion rate of 15% and a season Over1.5 rate of 90%, while Wycombe scores 0.90 goals per game with an 8% conversion rate and season over1.5 = 70%. Stockport attempts more shots (13.85 vs 11.9) and more shots on target (5.6 vs 3.7), reinforcing the likelihood of at least two goals; therefore the strongest data signal is an Over on the 1.5 line.

I back 1/1 (Stockport leading at Half-Time and winning at Full-Time) because the hosts led at the break in 12 of 20 matches (60%) and have a 60% win rate this season. Stockport score an average of 0.9 goals by half-time versus Wycombe’s 0.35 and register 2.05 goals per game compared to the visitors’ 0.9; their xG is 1.63 versus 1.36, which confirms an advantage in chance creation. Additionally, the hosts average 5.6 shots on target per match versus Wycombe’s 3.7 and have a conversion rate of 15% against 8%, while conceding an average of 0.9 goals per game versus the opponents’ 1.25, all of which supports maintaining a lead. Stockport also tend to finish matches well — 9 goals in the 61–75 minute window and 11 in 76–90 — so 1/1 is the strongest signal; simply combining the 60% chance to lead at HT with the 60% chance to win FT yields roughly a 36% probability for this scenario.