Stuttgart II vs Ulm: match statistics

Stuttgart II are the favorites: at home they have a 53% win rate and score on average 1.47 goals with 5.27 shots on target per match, while Ulm on the road average 1.33 goals and only 3.4 shots on target. Defensively the hosts perform better — Stuttgart concedes 1.33 goals at home versus 2.07 conceded by Ulm away, and xG shows 1.62 for Stuttgart against 1.41 for Ulm. Although in the last five matches Ulm has a slightly higher points average (1.4 vs 1.2 points per match), the visitors have a high away loss rate (60%) and a negative away goal differential of -11, which weakens their chances. Additionally Stuttgart has higher possession (55% vs 49%), more total shots (13.53 vs 12.27) and a higher home clean sheet rate (20% vs 13%), so they should create more high-quality chances. On this basis I forecast a home win; probability distribution is 62% for Stuttgart, 18% for a draw and 20% for Ulm, with several goals expected (average total goals 2.8 for Stuttgart and 3.4 in Ulm’s matches).

A strong signal for BTTS is that season rates are 63% for Stuttgart II and 80% for Ulm, and in the last 5 matches both teams have BTTS at 80% (4/5). Both sides score and concede frequently: season goals for are 1.25 (Stuttgart II) and 1.33 (Ulm), while goals conceded are 1.94 and 2.07 respectively; xG for is 1.44 and 1.41, and xG against around 1.6 and 1.65, indicating roughly 1.4–1.65 xG generated from both sides. Additionally, matches often exceed 2.5 goals — 63% for the home team and 73% for the away — and the Over2.5 + BTTS combination occurs in 56% and 60% of cases, suggesting an open game. Clean sheets are rare (19% and 13%), and in the last 5 matches Stuttgart averaged 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded, while Ulm averaged 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, so both teams regularly both score and concede. Based on this I assign an 85% probability to BTTS - Yes and 15% to No.

Based on xG: Stuttgart II has an attacking xG of 1.44, Ulm 1.41, with xG conceded 1.60 (Stuttgart II) and 1.65 (Ulm). From these values I expect about 1.55 goals for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors, i.e. approximately 3.05 total goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=3.05 yields an over 1.5 probability of around 81% (1 − P(0) − P(1) ≈ 0.81), over 2.5 about 59% and over 3.5 about 36%. Season metrics confirm this trend: Stuttgart has 69% of matches over 1.5, Ulm 93%; over 2.5 stands at 63% and 73%, and both-teams-to-score rates are 63% and 80% respectively. Given the high expected 3.05 goals, large average goals conceded 1.94 (Stuttgart II) and 2.07 (Ulm), and the superior probability, the best betting signal is Over 1.5 goals.

A half-time draw appears most likely, as both teams have a high proportion of goals in the first half (seasonOver05PercentageHT: 81% for the home side and 80% for the visitors) alongside drawingAtHTPercentage values of 31% (Stuttgart II) and 40% (Ulm). Stuttgart II has a slight edge in chance creation: xG_for_avg 1.44 versus 1.41 for Ulm and 4.31 shots on target per game versus 3.4, and they collect more points at home over the season (seasonPPG_home 1.0 vs seasonPPG_away 0.8) and win more often (31% vs 20%). The key argument for a home turnaround after the break is the last five matches: Stuttgart II scored an average of 1.4 goals in second halves versus 0.33 for Ulm (last5_scored_2hg_avg), and the home side won second halves in 60% of cases versus 0% for the visitors. Therefore the primary scenario is a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1, 32%), while 1/1 (17%) and X/X (20%) are secondary, and variants with an Ulm victory are less likely given their lower seasonPPG_away 0.8 and winPercentage_away 20%.