Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen: match statistics

I favor Stuttgart based on their home metrics: the hosts score 1.69 goals per home match, have xG 1.80, average 16.44 shots per game of which 6 are on target, and control 59% possession. Bayer Leverkusen away score 1.81 goals with xG 1.38 and 12.06 shots per match, but only 3.75 are on target; their shot conversion is 15% versus Stuttgart’s 10%. Defensively Stuttgart shows a clear advantage: they concede 0.94 goals at home and keep 50% clean sheets, while Leverkusen concede 1.56 goals away and have 13% clean sheets; average xG against is 1.23 versus 1.68. In the last 5 fixtures the hosts scored 12 goals and collected 8 points (1.6 per match), the visitors 8 goals and 9 points (1.8 per match), indicating higher goal intensity from Stuttgart, though Leverkusen can be more efficient points-wise. Considering the hosts’ superior xG and defensive balance and an identical season tally (both on 66 goals), I assess the probabilities as: Stuttgart win 58%, draw 20%, Leverkusen win 22%.

Both teams have high seasonal BTTS rates: Stuttgart 63% and Bayer Leverkusen 63%, against a league BTTS rate of 61%, which already favors a 'both teams to score' scenario. In the last 5 matches Stuttgart shows 80% BTTS and Leverkusen 60%, so recent form also supports BTTS. Offensive and defensive analysis confirms this: Stuttgart scores on average 2.31 goals per match with xG 2.01, while Leverkusen concedes 1.56 goals on average with xG against 1.68 (2.01 > 1.68), suggesting the hosts should find the net. The visitors score 1.81 goals per match with xG 1.38, which exceeds Stuttgart's defensive xG of 1.21 (1.38 > 1.21), so Leverkusen also has realistic chances to score. Although Stuttgart has a higher home clean sheet rate (38% vs 13% for Leverkusen), the combined xG advantage and high seasonal BTTS rates (63%/63% and 61% in the league) lead me to pick 'BTTS - Yes' with an estimated probability of about 70% vs 30% for 'No'.

Stuttgart scores an average of 2.31 goals at home, Bayer Leverkusen scores an average of 1.81 goals away — totaling 4.12 goals by team averages. Average xG are 2.01 for Stuttgart and 1.38 for Leverkusen, while xG conceded are 1.21 (home) and 1.68 (away); averaging offensive xG with xG conceded yields expected xG of 1.85 for the home side and 1.30 for the visitors (sum 3.15). Stuttgart registers 6.38 shots on target per match versus Leverkusen’s 3.75, and the percentage of matches over 1.5 goals is 94% for the home team and 75% for the away team, which reinforces a signal for at least two goals. A Poisson model on total xG = 3.15 gives Over 2.5 ≈61% and Over 3.5 ≈39%, while seasonal Over 1.5 shares (94%/75%) and Stuttgart’s last 5 matches (Over 2.5 in 80% and BTTS in 80%) increase confidence in Over 1.5. Therefore, as the strongest and most likely signal I recommend betting Over 1.5; the 2.5 line remains a valuable option (~65%).

Stuttgart has a clear advantage in chance creation: average xG 2.01 versus 1.38, on average 18.19 shots and 6.38 on target compared to Leverkusen’s 12.06 and 3.75, and 2.31 goals scored per match versus 1.81, which argues for a final victory for the home side. In the shorter term Leverkusen have led at the break in 60% of their last 5 matches, while Stuttgart only in 20%, and in first halves the visitors have a higher goals-per-half average (1.0 versus the home side’s 0.8), so a draw or a lead for the visitors at half-time is realistic. The key argument for Stuttgart is the second half: the hosts score on average 1.13 goals after the break versus 0.56 for Leverkusen and win the second half in 80% of their last 5 appearances, which increases the chance of a turnaround. Additionally, season-long metrics confirm the home advantage in quality of chances (more xG and shots on target) despite a slightly lower conversion rate (13% versus 15% for the visitors), therefore the scenario HT draw / FT 1 is assessed as the strongest.