Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: match statistics

Borussia Dortmund enter the match as league runners-up and are enjoying an excellent run of five consecutive victories, while Stuttgart have won 3 of their last 5 matches but have also suffered 2 defeats. During this period, the visitors have scored 16 goals and conceded just 4, whereas Stuttgart have netted 13 times but allowed their opponents 9 goals. At home, Stuttgart create considerably more, averaging 22 shots and recording an xG of 2.39; however, their defense allows opponents an xG of 1.62 and has yet to keep a clean sheet. Dortmund average 3 goals away from home, while their shot conversion rate stands at 27% compared with the hosts’ 18%, which could prove decisive when it comes to converting the few chances available. Despite Stuttgart’s clear possession advantage, at 58% to 40%, the visitors’ more consistent run and greater efficiency in front of goal point to a narrow victory for Dortmund.

The signal for both teams to score is clear, as Stuttgart have averaged 2.6 goals scored but also conceded 1.8 in their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of those fixtures. Borussia Dortmund are on an excellent five-match winning streak, averaging 3.2 goals per game across their last five appearances and creating chances worth 2.34 xG. The hosts generate an average of 2.02 xG and 7.5 shots on target at home, while Dortmund allow opponents 2.09 xG, significantly increasing the likelihood of a Stuttgart goal. Dortmund’s defense has conceded just 0.8 goals per match in their last five games, so a No Goal outcome for one team remains realistic; however, the attacking quality of both sides and the league BTTS average of 59% support the “BTTS - Yes” option.

The match profile clearly points to goals: Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund have averaged 2.6 and 3.2 goals respectively across their last 5 matches. During the same period, the hosts conceded 1.8 goals per match, while their average xG against stood at 1.71, giving Dortmund a genuine opportunity to find the net. Stuttgart generate 2.02 xG at home and average 17 shots, while Dortmund allow opponents 2.09 xG away from home. Over 2.5 goals landed in all 5 of Stuttgart’s last matches and in 80% of Dortmund’s games, while the league average of 3.85 goals further supports a high-scoring game. However, the strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have cleared this line in 100% of their available league matches this season.

Stuttgart hold a clear advantage in the home data: they score an average of 2.5 goals, have yet to concede, and led at the break in every match so far. The hosts also create more chances, as reflected by an xG of 2.02 compared with Borussia’s 1.15, as well as an average of 7.5 shots on target versus 4.0 for their opponents. Dortmund have won their last five matches and score an average of 1.8 goals after half-time, so turnaround scenarios remain realistic. Nevertheless, Stuttgart concede an average of 1.2 goals after the break across their last five matches, while Dortmund allow 2.0 goals on average away from home and have an xG against of 2.09. The strongest HT/FT outcome is therefore Stuttgart leading at half-time and maintaining their advantage to win the match: 1/1.