Südtirol vs Virtus Entella: match statistics

Südtirol have not won any of their last five matches, but they have drawn four of them, which significantly increases the likelihood of another stalemate. The hosts have scored just 3 goals and conceded 4 during this period, so their matches are typically tight, producing an average of only 1.4 goals. Virtus Entella have a slightly better recent record, collecting 7 points from five matches compared with Südtirol’s 4, and winning two games. However, the visitors have scored only 5 goals and conceded 6, meaning their superior results do not provide a strong basis for backing an away win. Given Südtirol’s draw-oriented trend and the small difference in the teams’ goal tallies, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

The strongest signal points to BTTS - No, as in their last five matches, both Südtirol and Virtus Entella recorded a both-teams-to-score scenario in only 40% of games. Südtirol scored just 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6 per match, which significantly increases the risk of the home side failing to find the net again. Entella averaged 1.0 goal, while Südtirol’s defense allowed opponents an xG of only 0.99, conceding 0.8 goals per match. Although both teams created relatively decent chances, with an average xG of 1.61 and 1.54, respectively, their actual finishing was limited, and they scored only 8 goals combined across their last ten matches. A result in which at least one team fails to score is therefore more likely.

Available seasonal data is zero, so the assessment is based primarily on the last five matches of both teams. Südtirol scored only 3 goals during this period, averaging 0.6 per match, while Virtus Entella scored 5, averaging 1.0, with average goals conceded of 0.8 and 1.2, respectively. Only 20% of Südtirol’s last matches and 40% of Entella’s games went over 2.5 goals, while both teams recorded a 40% Both Teams to Score rate. Although the average xG figures from the last five appearances are higher—1.61 for the hosts and 1.54 for the visitors—both teams’ actual finishing efficiency was significantly lower. The 2.10-goal projection supports Under 3.5, as this bet would require at least 4 goals to lose, which recent results do not suggest.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time and at full-time, as Südtirol have drawn 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring only 0.6 goals per game in those fixtures. The hosts have not held a lead at the break in any of these matches, while the score was level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five outings. Virtus Entella have been more effective over the full match, averaging 1.0 goals compared with Südtirol’s 0.6, but they were also trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches and conceded 0.8 goals per game before the break. The hosts’ low second-half scoring average of 0.6 goals, together with draws in 80% of their second halves, further supports an undecided outcome at full-time.