Sūduva vs Kauno Žalgiris: match statistics

Kauno Žalgiris is the favorite; they lead the table and have scored 33 goals this season versus Sūduva’s 18. Away, Kauno Žalgiris averages 2.5 goals per game, xG 1.78, 15.33 shots and 6 on target, with 64% possession, while Sūduva at home scores 1.71 goals on average, has xG 1.44, 11.71 shots and 4.14 on target, and 48% possession. At the same time Sūduva defends very well at home — conceding only 0.43 goals per game and keeping 71% clean sheets, which can limit the visitors’ dominance (Kauno Žalgiris concedes 0.83 on the road). In the last 5 matches Sūduva have not won any game and average 0.8 points per match, while Kauno Žalgiris have 1 win and 1.4 points per match, giving the visitors a slight mental edge. Considering the visitors’ superiority in quality and chance volume (xG 1.78 vs 1.44 and 15.33 vs 11.71 shots) and their consistency in scoring (0% of away games without a goal), I forecast a Kauno Žalgiris victory.

Both teams possess high scoring potential: Sūduva averages 2.25 goals per home match, Kauno Žalgiris 2.50 away, and the seasonal xG for both teams is 1.78 each (3.56 xG combined). On one hand Sūduva has 63% clean sheets at home and a seasonal BTTS of only 38%, which historically favors No Goal; on the other hand Kauno has a seasonal BTTS of 67% and only 33% away clean sheets, strongly supporting BTTS - Yes. In the last 5 matches Sūduva had BTTS in 100% and conceded on average 1.6 goals, while Kauno had 60% BTTS and conceded on average 1.0 goals; additionally in L5 Kauno generated 1.91 xG and scored 9 goals, Sūduva 1.42 xG and 7 goals, so recently both teams create chances and concede. Considering the strong Kauno signal (BTTS 67%), Sūduva’s recent run (100% in L5) and high over 2.5 rates (63% for Sūduva and 83% for Kauno), I predict BTTS "yes" with a probability of 68% versus 32% for "no".

Both teams show high offensive potential: Sūduva scores on average 2.25 goals per match, Kauno Žalgiris 2.50, and both teams have xG of 1.78; accounting for opponents' xG (xG against Sūduva 0.94 and against Kauno 1.17) yields estimated xG of 1.48 for the home side and 1.36 for the away side, totaling 2.84 expected goals. A Poisson model with aggregate λ=2.84 gives the probability of Over 1.5 (at least 2 goals) at about 78%. For the 2.5 line the model indicates roughly a 54% chance of three or more goals, while for 3.5 the probability of four or more goals falls to about 32%, which aligns with seasonal over 2.5 rates: 63% for the home team and 83% for the away team, and over 3.5: 50% home and 33% away. In the last 5 matches Sūduva scored 7 and conceded 8 goals (avg 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded), Kauno Žalgiris scored 9 and conceded 5 (avg 1.8 and 1.0), yielding roughly 2.8 goals per match and further strengthening the over signal. Based on this, I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest pick — highest probability (78%) and consistency with seasonal and recent data support this line.

Sūduva have led at the break in 63% of matches and average 1.38 first-half goals versus Kauno’s 1.00, while keeping a first-half clean sheet in 88% of cases, which strongly favors the home side to hold a lead after 45 minutes. After the break Kauno Žalgiris average 1.5 second-half goals compared to Sūduva’s 0.88 and win the second half in 83% of their outings, increasing the risk of a turnaround by the visitors. Further supporting Sūduva is a lower conceded xG of 0.94 versus 1.17 for their opponents, with identical attacking xG of 1.78–1.78, indicating the hosts more frequently neutralize the opposition’s chances. Additionally Sūduva have scored 7 goals in the 31–45' interval versus Kauno’s 3 and hold a clearly better half-time record (HTPoints 17 vs 10), therefore the scenario of leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1) is the strongest signal. I assigned 35% to 1/1 as the highest probability, allocating the remaining chances to a draw or a turnaround as less likely.