Sūduva vs TransINVEST Vilnius: match statistics

Sūduva possesses a clear defensive edge at home: they concede an average of 0.5 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 60% of games, whereas TransINVEST concedes 1.4 goals on average away and has only a 20% clean sheet rate. In attack TransINVEST is more productive on the road — they score 2.3 goals away on average, register 5.4 shots on target per match and have a 17% conversion rate, while Sūduva at home scores 1.6 goals with 4.1 shots on target and a 13% conversion. Additionally, Sūduva fail to score in 30% of home matches, while Trans fail to score in only 10% of away games, which increases the likelihood that the visitors will find the net despite the hosts’ strong defense. xG values are similar (Sūduva xG at home 1.48 vs Trans 1.53 away), but form favors the hosts — Sūduva have won 4 of their last 5 matches and average 2.6 points per game in that period, while Trans have 3 wins and average 2.0 points per game. Considering Sūduva’s superior defensive resilience and excellent home record (0% defeats and +11 goal difference at the stadium), I slightly favor the hosts to win.

Statistics strongly favor the "Both Teams To Score" scenario: Sūduva has a seasonal BTTS of 56% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while TransINVEST posts 70% for the season and 100% in the last 5. TransINVEST averages 2.3 goals per game this season, 5.4 shots on target and a 17% conversion rate, whereas Sūduva records 1.33 goals per game, 3.67 shots on target and a 10% conversion, indicating superior attacking strength from the visitors. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.53 TransINVEST vs 1.49 Sūduva), and over the last 5 matches both sides averaged 1.8 goals each (9 goals in 5 matches apiece), so the home side also has a realistic chance to score. Sūduva has a higher clean sheet rate (44% vs 20%) and concedes 0.89 goals per game this season versus 1.4 for TransINVEST, which slightly reduces BTTS risk, but the visitors’ high share of matches over 2.5 goals (90%) and their strong BTTS figures (70% season / 100% recent) outweigh that. Therefore I tip BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 78%.

The xG model indicates 1.35 expected goals for Sūduva (attacking xG 1.49 vs xG conceded to TransINVEST 1.21) and 1.40 for TransINVEST (attacking xG 1.53 vs xG conceded to Sūduva 1.26), totaling 2.75 goals. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.75 yields roughly a 52% probability of ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) and about 76% for ≥2 goals (Over 1.5), which serves as the baseline. Seasonal metrics strengthen this signal: TransINVEST has 90% of matches over 2.5 and averages 2.3 goals per match with a 17% conversion rate, while Sūduva has 56% of matches over 2.5 and a seasonal goals average of 1.33, so empirical data supports a higher Over probability. Additionally, in the last 5 matches of both teams combined Over 2.5 occurred in 80% of cases, and both teams scored 9 goals across those 5 games, confirming offensive form. Consequently I recommend the Over side on the 2.5 line as the best pick: although the raw model gives ~52% for Over 2.5, the seasonal 90%/56% figures and recent form (80%) justify raising the estimated probability to approximately 78% for Over 2.5.

I favor the X/2 scenario (draw at Half-Time, TransINVEST to win Full-Time) because Sūduva keeps a clean sheet at the break in 89% of home matches and concedes only 0.22 goals on average in the first half, which increases the likelihood of a draw at HT. TransINVEST, meanwhile, averages 2.3 goals per match versus Sūduva’s 1.33 and wins 60% of their fixtures compared to the home side’s 44%, giving them the edge for the Full-Time result. The visitors also register more shots on target (5.4 vs 3.67) and have a higher conversion rate (17% vs 10%), with a similar xG (1.53 vs 1.49), indicating they are more effective at converting chances after the break. Additionally, TransINVEST scores on average 1.2 goals in the second half while Sūduva concedes 0.67 goals in second halves, therefore I assigned X/2 the highest probability at 28%, with the next strongest signals being 2/X (17%) and 2/2 (12%).