Sūduva vs Žalgiris: match statistics

Sūduva are favorites due to an excellent home defense: they concede just 0.33 goals on average at home, keep a clean sheet in 83% of home matches and remain unbeaten at home so far (67% home win rate). Žalgiris, however, creates more chances — on the road they average 60% possession, 15.2 shots per game and a higher xG of 1.71 versus Sūduva’s 1.49 at home. The visitors’ problem is low finishing: Žalgiris’ away conversion rate is 8%, yielding 1.2 goals per game, while Sūduva convert 15% at home and average 1.83 goals. In the last 5 matches Sūduva have scored 8 and conceded 7 with 1.6 points per game, and Žalgiris have 9 scored and 6 conceded with 1.4 points per game, indicating similar form but a home record favoring the hosts. Based on this I forecast a Sūduva win (1); probabilities estimated at 60% home, 25% draw, 15% away, and given the low average goals conceded (0.33 and 0.4) I expect a relatively low-scoring game.

Sūduva has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% and 80% in the last 5 matches, with seasonal goals for/against of 1.71 and 1.57 (last 5: 1.6 scored, 1.4 conceded), indicating hosts frequently allow opponents to score. Žalgiris has a seasonal BTTS of only 20% and an impressive 80% clean sheets season rate with a seasonal goals conceded average of 0.4, favoring a “No Goal” scenario; however, in the last 5 matches Žalgiris has BTTS 80% and averages 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, showing a clear defensive deterioration. Attacking metrics are similar: xG Sūduva 1.57 vs Žalgiris 1.71, shots 13.71 vs 15.2 and shots on target 4.43 vs 4.0; Sūduva also has higher shot conversion 13% vs Žalgiris 8%, increasing the hosts’ scoring probability. Considering the hosts’ seasonal signal (71% BTTS), Žalgiris’s sharp shift from 20% season BTTS to 80% in the last 5 matches, and comparable xG, the stronger and more current signal points to both teams scoring. Therefore I forecast BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% vs 35% for No.

Expected xG is 1.57 for Sūduva and 1.71 for Žalgiris; combining this with opponents' defense (Žalgiris xG against 1.14, Sūduva 1.46) I derive expected goals of 1.36 for the home side and 1.59 for the away side, total 2.95. Sūduva have Over 1.5 in 86% of home matches, Žalgiris have Over 1.5 in 60% of away games, while Žalgiris keep a clean sheet in 80% of away fixtures — a mixed signal, but average xG and form tilt toward goals. In the last 5 matches Sūduva scored 8 goals (1.6 per game), Žalgiris 9 goals (1.8 per game), and BTTS occurred in 80% of those five rounds, reinforcing the prospect of at least 2 goals. Sūduva average 13.71 shots (4.43 on target) with a 13% conversion, Žalgiris 15.2 shots (4.0 on target) and 8% conversion — this confirms the volume of goal-scoring opportunities. Based on this I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (estimated ~80% probability); Over 2.5 I assess at about 57% and Over 3.5 at about 35%.

The strongest signal indicates a lead at the break and victory for Žalgiris (2/2): Žalgiris led at half-time in 60% of away matches, conceded no goals by half-time on average (0.0) and concedes only 0.4 goals per away game with 80% clean sheets. Sūduva at home scores an average of 0.71 goals by half-time and concedes 0.71, and their home matches end with both teams scoring in 71% of cases, which increases the likelihood of a home goal after the break. Therefore the distribution assigns 60% overall to scenarios with the away team leading at half-time — 9% to 2/1, 15% to 2/X and 36% to 2/2 — because Žalgiris often holds the score until full-time (80% away clean sheets) and has an away xG of 1.71 versus opponents’ around 1.46. I allocated 30% to scenarios with a draw at half-time (5% X/1, 15% X/X, 10% X/2), since Žalgiris were level or drawing at half-time in 40% of away games, and Sūduva record 43% half-time draws at home. The least likely are home leads at half-time (10% total: 6% 1/1, 2% 1/X, 2% 1/2) despite Sūduva averaging 1.71 goals per home game, therefore I pick 2/2 as the best bet.