Sukhothai vs Ratchaburi: match statistics

Ratchaburi is the clear favorite: they sit 3rd in the table versus Sukhothai’s 13th, have 15 wins this season (5 away) and have scored 46 goals versus 19. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 11 goals and average 1.6 points per match, while the hosts have only 3 goals and 0.8 points, indicating a form advantage. Offensively Ratchaburi away average 2.08 goals with xG 1.33 and a 19% conversion rate, whereas Sukhothai at home average 1.15 goals with xG 1.34 and a 9% conversion, so the visitors convert chances significantly better. Defensively Sukhothai concede less at home (0.85 goals per match) than Ratchaburi do away (1.25), but the visitors’ superior possession (53% vs 45%) and high efficiency (19% vs 9%) neutralize that difference. Therefore I predict an away win.

The scenario of both teams scoring is more likely: Ratchaburi has a seasonal BTTS of 67% and BTTS in the last 5 matches of 100%, with an average goals per game of 2.08 for the season (last 5: 2.2). Ratchaburi features a high shot conversion rate of 19% and an average of 4.42 shots on target per game, so they are likely to find a way past Sukhothai. Sukhothai officially scores 1.5 goals per game and has 43% clean sheets, but in the last 5 matches they scored only 0.6 goals and conceded 1.4 per game, which lowers their chances of a clean sheet. xG comparison shows Sukhothai with xG_for 1.44 versus xG_against_away 1.74, and Ratchaburi scored 46 goals in the season compared to 39 conceded by Sukhothai; together with the league average BTTS 56% this gives a stronger signal for BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal).

The combined xG for both teams is 1.44 + 1.33 = 2.77; after accounting for opposing defenses' xG conceded (Sukhothai concedes 1.37 xG, Ratchaburi concedes 1.74 xG) I estimate 1.59 goals for the home side and 1.35 for the visitors, totaling 2.94 expected goals. Seasonal metrics confirm a scoring trend: Over 0.5 is 93% (Sukhothai) and 100% (Ratchaburi), while Over 1.5 is 57% and 83% — a strong signal for at least 2 goals. Ratchaburi have scored 46 goals this season and average 2.08 goals per match (11 goals in the last 5, 2.2 average), whereas Sukhothai have 19 goals this season and 1.5 per match, so the visitors are the main driver of offense. Additionally, BTTS occurred in 50% (Sukhothai) and 67% (Ratchaburi) of matches, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides; therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (86%), with Over 2.5 also favored (68%), while Over 3.5 is less likely (39%) given the expected 2.94 goals.

Ratchaburi are the favorites: they have a 67% win rate this season versus Sukhothai’s 50%, and a seasonal goals-per-game of 2.08 versus the home side’s 1.50; additionally, the visitors’ shot conversion is 19% compared to the hosts’ 12%, and the hosts’ xG is 1.44 versus the visitors’ 1.33, indicating the hosts create slightly more chances but the visitors are more efficient. At Half-Time a draw is more likely, as the hosts lead at the break in 43% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_home 43.0), while Ratchaburi are drawing at Half-Time in 50% of their games (drawingAtHTPercentage_away 50.0) and in their last 5 outings they averaged 1.2 goals before the break (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_away 1.2). After the break the visitors dominate: the visitors’ second-half goals average is 1.25 (scored_2hg_avg_away 1.25), over 0.5 in the second half occurs in 100% of their matches (over05_2hg_percentage_away 100.0), and their second-half win percentage is 67% (wins_2hg_percentage_away 67.0). Therefore the most reliable HT/FT scenario appears to be a draw at Half-Time and a Ratchaburi turnaround to win after 90 minutes (X/2).