Sumqayıt vs İnter Bakı: match statistics

Sumqayıt have lost all 3 of their league matches, while their record over the last five games stands at 5 defeats with a 6:12 goal difference. At home, the hosts score just 0.5 goals per match on average and concede 2.0, failing to keep a single clean sheet. İnter Bakı average 1.25 goals scored away from home, concede 1.0 and record a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The visitors also create slightly more chances, registering 10.25 shots and 4 on target per game compared with Sumqayıt’s 8.5 and 3.5, while their conversion rate stands at 12% versus 6% for the hosts. Although both teams have similar xG figures (1.30 for İnter Bakı compared with 1.34 for Sumqayıt), the hosts’ significantly weaker defense and disastrous run of form point towards an away win.

Recent form points to a scenario with goals from both sides: BTTS occurred in 80% of Sumqayıt’s last five matches and in 60% of İnter Bakı’s games. During this period, the hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals but conceded as many as 2.4, while the visitors scored 1.2 and allowed their opponents 1.4 goals. Sumqayıt created chances worth 1.39 xG, while its defense allowed opponents 1.77 xG, clearly increasing İnter Bakı’s chances of scoring. However, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches in the seasonal data, while the league records BTTS in only 36% of games, so the edge for BTTS - Yes is marginal. Despite these reservations, the hosts’ weak defense and both teams’ current scoring records provide slightly stronger support for BTTS - Yes.

Sumqayıtu’s latest form clearly favors goals: over their last five matches, the team averaged 1.2 goals scored but conceded as many as 2.4. İNTER Bakı also averaged 1.2 goals per game during the same period, while their matches produced an average of 2.6 goals, as the team conceded 1.4 goals per match. Chance-quality metrics also point to an open game: Sumqayıtu’s average xG stands at 1.39, compared with 1.30 xG conceded by the visitors, while the away side can exploit the hosts’ defense, which allows 1.77 xG. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and in 60% of the visitors’ games, although the 2.5 line remains more volatile. The strongest selection is therefore Over 1.5, as the projected 2.75 goals and Sumqayıtu’s weak defense create a high probability of at least two goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an away win at full-time, as İnter Bakı were level at the break in 3 of their 4 league matches this season, equating to 75% of cases. Sumqayıt have lost all of their last five matches, conceding an average of 1.4 goals before half-time while scoring just 0.4. The visitors have been relatively well organized defensively in the first halves, keeping a clean sheet in 75% of their matches and conceding only 0.25 goals before the break. After half-time, the hosts have continued to allow opponents an average of 1.0 goal across their last five appearances, which favors İnter Bakı turning a balanced opening into a victory. An alternative is an away win in both halves, but their high rate of half-time draws more clearly supports the X/2 outcome.