Supra du Québec vs Cavalry FC: match statistics

Cavalry FC sit 2nd, with 10 wins and just 2 losses in 15 matches, while Supra du Québec have won 5 of 14 games and are sixth. The visitors win 63% of their away matches, score an average of 1.63 goals and concede just 0.50, while also keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their away fixtures. At home, the hosts score only 1.14 goals per match, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and allow opponents to average 1.71 goals. Supra have won 3 of their last five matches, but conceded 11 goals during that run, compared with just 4 conceded by Cavalry. The hosts generate a higher home xG—1.63 compared with the visitors’ 1.48 away from home—but their clearly inferior finishing and defensive record point to a Cavalry FC victory.

Supra du Québec have recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals while conceding as many as 2.2. Cavalry FC have seen BTTS land in 60% of their last five outings and have averaged 1.8 goals per match during this period, with their average xG of 1.61 confirming their consistent chance creation. The hosts have been highly effective offensively this season, averaging 2.43 goals and 5.57 shots on target per match, while Cavalry average 5.13 shots on target. The main risk to the BTTS - Yes pick is the visitors’ solid defense: they have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches and concede just 0.50 goals on average. However, Supra’s recent run of 11 goals conceded in five games supports the probability of Cavalry scoring. Therefore, a Goal/Goal scenario is more likely than BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal is on Over 1.5 goals, as Supra du Québec cleared this line in 100% of their matches this season, while Cavalry FC did so in 50% of games. The hosts have been particularly open in their recent form: they scored 2.0 goals per match across their last five fixtures but conceded as many as 2.2, with all 5 of those games producing at least 3 goals. Cavalry FC averaged 1.8 goals scored during this period, while both teams have been creating quality chances, as reflected by Supra’s xG of 1.69 and Cavalry’s 1.61 over their last five appearances. The projected total of 2.75 goals is also close to the league average of 2.97, making two goals in the match a very realistic scenario. The 2.5 line remains more evenly balanced, as Cavalry conceded only 0.8 goals per game in their last five fixtures, and 87% of their matches this season finished with Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest HT/FT scenario appears to be a draw at half-time followed by a Cavalry FC win, as the visitors were level at the break in 63% of their matches this season and in 60% of their last five. Cavalry have not conceded before half-time at any point this season and have also kept a clean sheet in the first half in each of their last five matches. Supra du Québec do have a higher season average for goals scored, 2.43 compared with 1.63, but they have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game across their last five fixtures and were trailing at half-time in 75% of those matches. After the interval, the hosts average 1.71 goals, but Cavalry should be capable of matching the output of a defensively weakened opponent; the visitors score 0.88 goals per game in that period, while Supra have allowed 1.25 goals in their recent run. Cavalry’s superior current first-half organization, combined with the hosts’ weaker recent defensive form, increases the likelihood that a cautious opening will turn into an away win after the break.