Suwon vs Busan I'Park: match statistics

Suwon sit 3rd and have collected 7 points in their last five matches, winning 3 games and scoring 8 goals, while Busan I'Park have failed to win any of their last five and have scored just 2 goals during that run. The hosts are particularly strong at home: they win 56% of their matches, have not lost there once, and average 2.22 goals per game. Busan average 1.73 goals away from home but concede as many as 1.64, while keeping a clean sheet in just 9% of their appearances, which should favor Suwon’s attacking play. Although the visitors create slightly more chances according to xG, 1.68 compared with 1.49, their 12% shot conversion rate and current winless run significantly reduce their chances. Suwon are also more efficient in front of goal, converting 18% of their attempts, making a home win the most likely outcome.

Seasonal BTTS rates are high on both sides: 64% for Suwon and 73% for Busan I'Park, compared with the league average of 63%. Both teams score an average of 1.73 goals per match, while Busan concede as many as 1.64 goals, which should favor the hosts finding the net. Suwon also do not have a fully watertight defense, allowing opponents an xG of 1.62, while Busan create an average xG of 1.68 and record 4.64 shots on target per match. The main risk to the BTTS scenario is Busan’s current form: they have scored just 2 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.4 per game, with BTTS landing in 40% of those fixtures. Nevertheless, Busan’s poor seasonal clean-sheet rate of just 9%, combined with the long-term goal data, gives a slight edge to the BTTS - Yes pick.

The Over 1.5 goals line has landed in 82% of the league matches involving both teams, which is a very clear shared signal. Suwon average 1.73 goals per match, while Busan I'Park concede 1.64, with the visitors keeping a clean sheet in just 9% of their games. The hosts are also in good form, scoring 8 times in their last 5 outings, while their average xG over that period stands at 1.62. Busan I'Park have scored only 2 goals in their last 5 matches, but they are creating an average of 1.22 xG, and Suwon allow opponents 1.38 xG, meaning the visitors still have a realistic route to scoring. The 2.60-goal projection gives the strongest edge to the Over 1.5 market, while the 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Suwon win, as Busan went into the dressing room level in 100% of their last five matches, failing to score a single first-half goal. Suwon, however, have been clearly more effective in their current form: they have averaged 1.6 goals per match, won 3 of their last 5 games and recorded an average of 2.0 points, while Busan have not won a single match and averaged just 0.6 points. The hosts concede only 1.09 goals per game this season and have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their matches, whereas Busan's defense allows an average of 1.64 goals. After the break, Suwon score an average of 0.82 goals, while Busan conceded 1.0 goal in this period across their last five matches, supporting a turnaround in favor of the hosts after an evenly matched opening.