Suwon vs Gimhae City: match statistics

Suwon sit 4th, while Gimhae City are only 17th, and the overall season record clearly favors the hosts: 10 wins and just 3 defeats compared with the visitors’ 2 wins and 12 losses. Suwon remain unbeaten at home, winning 50% of their matches and drawing the remaining 50%, while averaging 2.25 goals per game. Gimhae City score just 0.91 goals away from home, lose 45% of their matches and have a negative goal difference of -7. The hosts also create more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.50 compared with their opponents’ 1.15, while their shot conversion rate stands at 18%, versus 11% for Gimhae. The visitors’ recent form remains poor, as they have failed to win any of their last five matches and have scored just 4 goals, making a Suwon victory the most likely outcome.

Suwon has recorded BTTS in 78% of their matches this season, while Gimhae City has done so in 64%, placing the scenario of both teams scoring above the league average of 63%. The hosts have kept no clean sheets and concede an average of 2.33 goals per game, so the visitors should have a clear chance to get on the scoresheet. At the same time, Gimhae City allows opponents an average of 1.55 goals, while Suwon has scored 1.6 goals per game in their last five matches, with an xG of 1.89. The current run also supports goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 80% of Suwon’s last five matches and in 60% of Gimhae City’s games. The main risk to the pick is the visitors’ recent scoring average of just 0.8 goals, but Suwon’s zero clean-sheet rate significantly strengthens the BTTS - Yes selection.

Suwon concede an average of 2.33 goals at home, while Gimhae City concede 1.55 away from home, creating favorable conditions for goals despite their modest scoring averages: 0.78 for the hosts and 0.91 for the visitors. The situational potential is higher, as average xG stands at 1.38 for Suwon and 1.15 for Gimhae City, rising in their last five matches to 1.89 and 1.34, respectively. The 1.5 line was covered in 89% of Suwon’s matches and 73% of Gimhae City’s, but the 3.5 line remains significantly more difficult to overcome: 67% and 73% of their matches, respectively, finished below it. In addition, neither team averages even one goal per match within its primary profile, making a four-goal or higher scenario less likely than a total in the 2-3 goal range. Under 3.5 therefore has the strongest statistical support, with a projected total of 2.69 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Suwon win in the match, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 44% of their games, compared with 36% for Gimhae City. First halves are typically cautious: Suwon score an average of 0.22 goals during them, while the visitors average 0.27, and both teams record a very low percentage of matches with goals scored by both sides before the break—11% and 9%, respectively. Current form clearly favors Suwon: they have collected 8 points from their last 5 matches, won twice, and held a lead at the break in 40% of those games, while Gimhae City have won none of their last 5 matches and drew as many as 60% of them. After the break, the hosts have averaged 0.8 goals in their last five appearances, compared with 0.4 for the visitors, giving them a basis to turn an evenly balanced match in their favor. However, the risk remains significant, as Suwon have conceded an average of 2.33 goals per match across the season and lost 78% of their games. Therefore, the scenarios of a full-time draw and an away win still retain a significant share.