Suwon vs Hwaseong: match statistics

Suwon, second in the table, remain unbeaten at home, winning 55% of their home matches, while fifth-placed Hwaseong have lost 30% of their away games. The hosts are more clinical on home soil, averaging 2.09 goals from 1.57 xG, compared with the visitors’ 1.3 goals and 1.47 xG away from home. Suwon have also failed to score in just 9% of their home matches, whereas Hwaseong have drawn a blank in 40% of their away games. The last five rounds also favor the hosts: they have taken 11 points and conceded 3 goals, while the visitors have picked up 8 points and conceded 5. A draw remains a realistic possibility, as Suwon have shared the points in 45% of their home matches and Hwaseong concede an average of just 0.9 goals away from home.

Suwon average 1.75 goals at home, while Hwaseong average 1.30 away; their average xG figures are 1.56 and 1.47 respectively, so both teams regularly create scoring chances. In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of each side’s games, strengthening the case for BTTS - Yes despite Hwaseong’s lower season-long figure of 40%. The biggest risk is the visitors’ attack: they failed to score in 40% of their away matches, while Suwon kept a clean sheet in 38% of their home games. Even so, Hwaseong have averaged 1.4 goals across their last 5 matches, and Suwon have allowed opponents chances worth 1.45 xG per match, so both teams are slightly more likely to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: 80% of Hwaseong’s matches and 62% of Suwon’s finished below this line. Although Suwon average 1.75 goals per game this season, Hwaseong concede just 0.90, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring performance from the visitors. Suwon, meanwhile, have conceded just 3 goals across their last 5 matches, while Hwaseong have failed to score in 40% of their games. A projection of 2.50 goals leaves room for a 2- or 3-goal game, making the 3.5 line a clearer value pick than the less decisive 2.5 line.

The most likely scenario is Suwon leading at the break and winning the match: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 44% of their matches, while Hwaseong were trailing at that point in 40%. In their last five matches, Suwon led at half-time twice, whereas the visitors did not do so once, reinforcing the signal for an early home advantage. Suwon’s average of 1.75 goals per match compared with Hwaseong’s 1.30, along with the hosts’ stronger record over their last five matches—three wins to the visitors’ two—supports the expectation that they will hold their lead. A half-time draw remains a significant alternative, as it occurred in 40% of Hwaseong’s matches, making X/1 another highly rated scenario. However, caution is warranted: Hwaseong concede an average of just 0.3 goals after half-time, which limits confidence in the 1/1 pick.