Tadamon Sour vs Reyady Abaseya: match statistics

Tadamon Sour have scored 15 goals this season, averaging 0.5 goals per home match, while Reyady Abaseya have 20 goals this season and average 1.0 goals on the road; their average xG are 0.64 and 0.89 respectively, indicating higher quality chances created by the visitors. The hosts concede 1.1 goals per home match on average and have kept a clean sheet in 50% of home games, whereas the visitors concede 1.55 goals away and have only 18% of matches without conceding, so Tadamon’s defense is more stable locally. Reyady average 7.3 shots and 2.5 on target away, versus the hosts’ 3.44 shots and 1.56 on target, giving the visitors a clear advantage in both quantity and quality of attempts. In the last five matches Tadamon scored 5 goals and recorded 2 wins, while Reyady scored 8 goals and also have 2 wins; both teams average 1.2 points per match in this run, suggesting similar form. Given the hosts’ poor attacking efficiency (50% of matches without a goal) and the visitors’ shooting superiority, I tip a draw as the most likely outcome, with a chance of a narrow away win.

The seasonal BTTS rate is 18% for Tadamon Sour and 45% for Reyady Abaseya against a league average of 31%, indicating the home side rarely features in Goal/Goal matches. xG figures are 0.84 (Tadamon) and 0.89 (Reyady), implying theoretical probabilities of scoring at least once of ~57% and ~59%, and the product of these gives ~34% chance of BTTS (0.57×0.59≈0.34). In the last 5 matches Tadamon has BTTS 40% and Reyady 20%, averaging 1.0 and 1.6 goals scored and conceding 1.8 and 1.6 respectively, which indicates the visitors are more active offensively but neither side presents a consistent both-teams-scoring pattern. Tadamon have scored 15 and conceded 26 this season and record 36% clean sheets, whereas Reyady have 20 scored and 30 conceded with only 18% clean sheets; these figures combined with the league average of 2.46 goals per match counsel caution on BTTS. Based on this I assign ~34% to "BTTS - Yes" and ~66% to "No Goal" and recommend the pick "No Goal" as the most likely outcome.

I calculate expected goals at approximately 1.03 for Tadamon Sour and 1.02 for Reyady Abaseya (total ~2.05), computed as the average of each side’s attacking xG and opponent xG allowed: attacking xG 0.84/0.89 and xG against 1.16/1.22. Seasonally, hosts have Over 1.5 in 55% of matches, visitors in 73% (average ~64%), and a simple Poisson model with lambda=2.05 gives ~61% chance of at least 2 goals, so I rate Over 1.5 highly (64% vs 36%). Signals on the 2.5 line are mixed: hosts only 27% Over2.5 vs 64% for guests, but in the last 5 matches both teams had Over2.5 at 60% and the combined goals in the last 5 matches of both teams is 13 (avg 2.6 per match), therefore I assign Over2.5 a moderate 46%. Additionally, hosts average 4.44 shots with a 23% conversion, and visitors 7.3 shots with a 15% conversion — this explains the hosts’ lower productivity and the average xG total of 2.05. Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 18%/27% and Poisson estimate ~15%), so Over3.5 18%/Under3.5 82%, and the best pick is Over 1.5.

Half-time statistics indicate a draw as the most frequent scenario: hosts are level at the break in 55% of matches, guests in 45%, with average first-half goals 0.27 (hosts) vs 0.45 (guests). After the break the advantage lies with the guests — they score on average 1.55 goals in second halves and in 91% of second halves they exceed 0.5 goals, whereas hosts have 1.09 and 64% respectively; additionally guests register more shots (7.3 vs 4.44) and have a higher season win rate (36% vs 18%). xG is similar (0.89 vs 0.84), which suggests the guests’ advantage stems mainly from greater activity and effectiveness after half-time rather than a significant disparity in chance creation quality. In light of these figures the most reliable signal is a draw at Half-Time and a guest win at Full-Time (X/2 ~30%); next most likely outcomes are draw/draw (~19%) and the hosts leading at the break and holding that lead (1/1 ~13%).