Tallinna FC Flora vs Harju Jalgpallikool: match statistics

I predict a win for Tallinna FC Flora. At home Flora averages 2.33 goals and has xG 2.03 with 5.67 shots on target and 16.33 shots per match, whereas Harju average 1.00 goal away with xG 1.38 and 3.11 shots on target. Defensively the hosts are superior: Flora concedes 1.00 goal at home and has 44% clean sheets compared to 1.89 conceded away and 11% clean sheets for Harju, and the share of matches without scoring is 11% for Flora versus 44% for Harju. In the short term the visitors have momentum — 3 wins in the last 5 matches, 18 goals in those 5 fixtures (3.6 per match) and 1.8 points per match versus Flora’s 9 goals (1.8 average) and 1.4 points per match — this signals form, but seasonal differentials (2nd vs 7th) and the home goal difference (+12 vs −8 for the away side) favor Flora. Considering the higher xG (2.03 vs 1.38), better shot conversion (14% vs 9%) and an advantage in quality of chances, I estimate probabilities at approximately 60% for the hosts, 20% for a draw and 20% for the visitors.

Both teams have BTTS at 60% in the last 5 matches, with seasonal values of 55% for Tallinna FC Flora and 44% for Harju Jalgpallikool against a league BTTS level of 57%. The signal is reinforced by xG and shot stats: Tallinna has xG 1.65 and an average of 4.82 shots on target per match, Harju has xG 1.38 and 3.11 shots on target, and both defenses concede high xG against (1.95 and 1.8). In the last 5 matches Harju scored 18 goals (avg 3.6 per match), while Tallinna in the same period conceded on average 1.4 goals, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will score at least once. Seasonally Tallinna has 39 goals for and 21 against, Harju 30 for and 34 against, and the difference in clean sheet percentages (36% vs 11%) does not eliminate the risk of goals from both sides. Based on these numbers I tip BTTS "Yes" with a probability of 65% versus 35% for "No".

The combined xG for both teams is 3.03 (Flora 1.65, Harju 1.38), which corresponds to an expected ~3 goals in the match. Flora averages 1.91 goals per home game and has 73% of matches Over 2.5 and 91% Over 1.5, while Harju averages 1.00 goals scored and concedes 1.89 with 67% of matches >2.5 and 78% >1.5. In the last 5 games Harju scored 18 goals (3.6 per game), and both teams frequently exceed 0.5 goals from their side (Flora 91%, Harju 78%), confirming a tendency toward matches with goals. Considering xG=3.03, the league average of 3.11 and the clear shares of matches >1.5 (91% vs 78%), the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (≈90% probability); the 2.5 line also has solid support (~72%), while Over 3.5 is considerably less likely (~34%).

Half-Time statistics clearly favor Tallinna FC Flora: the hosts led at the break in 5 cases (45%) and score an average of 1.18 goals by half-time, while Harju led only once (11%) and averages 0.44 goals by half-time. Over the full match Flora record 1.91 goals per game with xG 1.65, versus Harju's 1.00 goals and xG 1.38; additionally Flora produce more shots (13.0 vs 11.44) and more shots on target (4.82 vs 3.11) with better conversion 15% vs 9%. Flora’s advantage is also evident in half-time points: 20 points and an average of 1.82 points at the break compared to 6 points and 0.67 for the visitors, and a half-time goal difference of +8 versus Harju’s -7. However, note the visitors’ recent form in the last 5 matches, when Harju averaged 3.6 goals and led at the break in 80% of games, so turnaround scenarios are not excluded. Overall the strongest signal is the hosts leading at the break and winning at full-time (1/1), therefore I assign that scenario the highest probability of 36%.