Tallinna FC Flora vs Kuressaare: match statistics

I back the home win. Tallinna FC Flora averages 1.5 goals scored at home and concedes only 0.5 per match, while Kuressaare averages 0 goals away and concedes 3 per match. Flora creates superior chances and control — home xG 2.05 versus away xG 1.15 for Kuressaare, with 18 shots and 4 on target on average compared to Kuressaare’s 8 shots and 3 on target, and possession 57% vs 33%. Defensively, the hosts have 50% clean sheets at home and a positive home goal difference (+2), while the visitors have 0% clean sheets away and 100% FTS (failed to score away). Given these concrete advantages in goals, xG, shots and possession, I estimate Flora’s win probability at 75%, draw 15% and Kuressaare win 10%.

Flora has a seasonal xG of 1.34 (1.83 in the last 5 matches) and averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded; Kuressaare concedes 3.0 goals per game on average and opponents generate xG 2.76 against them, suggesting the hosts should score. Kuressaare has xG_for 1.15 seasonally (1.24 in the last 5) and scored 5 goals in the last 5 matches (1.0 avg), so despite a seasonal BTTS 0% they have a real ability to score. Additionally Flora averages 5.0 shots on target and 10.5 attempts per game versus Kuressaare’s 3.0 and 8.0, confirming the hosts’ offensive potential against the visitors’ weak defense. Considering these numbers and a league BTTS of 55%, I back BTTS - Yes at an estimated 60% vs 40% for No.

I project a total of 3.17 goals: 2.05 for Tallinna FC Flora and 1.12 for Kuressaare, calculated by averaging attacking and defensive xG (Flora attack xG 1.34 vs Kuressaare conceded xG 2.76 → 2.05; Kuressaare attack xG 1.15 vs Flora conceded xG 1.09 → 1.12). Flora averages 10.5 shots and 5.0 shots on target per game versus 8.0 and 3.0 for Kuressaare, while Kuressaare concedes 3.0 goals on average away and has 100% of away matches with at least one goal, which favors a higher-scoring game. In the last 5 matches Flora had xG 1.83 and scored 7 goals (1.4 avg), Kuressaare had xG 1.24 and 5 goals (1.0 avg), and the league average is 3.15 goals per game, close to our 3.17 projection. A Poisson model with λ=3.17 gives about 82% for Over 1.5, about 61% for Over 2.5 and about 39% for Over 3.5. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (side: Over), since the expected 3.17 goals plus Kuressaare’s high conceded xG (2.76) and Flora’s shot advantage justify backing at least three goals.

Kuressaare have not been scoring this season (seasonScoredAVG_away = 0.0) and lose 100% of their matches while conceding an average of 3.0 goals per game (losePercentage_away = 100.0, seasonConcededAVG_away = 3.0), whereas Flora score on average 1.5 goals and win 50% of their matches (seasonScoredAVG_home = 1.5, winPercentage_home = 50.0). xG values indicate a home advantage in chance creation (xG 1.34 for Flora vs 1.15 for Kuressaare), and the opponent’s defense is weak (xG against Kuressaare = 2.76), which increases the likelihood of Flora goals in the match. Half-Time statistics favor a draw: the hosts were level at the break in 40% of their last 5 matches and averaged 0.4 goals by half-time (last5_drawingAtHTPercentage_overall_home = 40.0, last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_home = 0.4), while the visitors have only 0.2 goals at half-time in their last five (last5_scoredAVGHT_overall_away = 0.2). The second half favors Flora — the hosts score on average 1.0 goals after the break, while Kuressaare do not score in second halves (scored_2hg_avg_home = 1.0, scored_2hg_avg_away = 0.0), with both teams having 100% of matches featuring at least one goal after the break (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0, over05_2hg_percentage_away = 100.0). Therefore the strongest signal is a draw at Half-Time and a home turnaround Full-Time (X/1).