Tallinna FC Levadia vs Vaprus: match statistics

I predict a home win. Tallinna FC Levadia at home has a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 1.0 goal per match, and its home xG is 2.18 versus 0.99 xG for opponents. Vaprus away has 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses (all away matches lost), concedes an average of 4.5 goals per match and has an average xG of 0.87, which clearly indicates defensive issues. Levadia generates significantly more chances: 18.67 shots and 5.33 on target per home match versus 6 shots and 2.5 on target for Vaprus away; despite the visitors’ higher conversion rate (17% vs 9%), the volume of attempts and xG favor the hosts. In the last 5 matches Levadia scored 10 goals and averages 1.8 points per match, while Vaprus conceded 14 goals and averages 1.2 points per match, therefore I assess the hosts’ chances as markedly higher.

Statistics strongly favor BTTS: Vaprus has BTTS at 100% for the season and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Levadia has 50% season BTTS and also 80% in the last 5. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season (0% vs 0%), with Vaprus conceding an average of 4.5 goals per match this season and 2.8 in the last 5, significantly increasing the risk of conceding. Levadia averages 2.0 goals and generates 2.38 xG in the last 5 matches, whereas Vaprus faces last5 xG of 1.83, so the home side has real scoring opportunities. The visitors also create chances — Vaprus has last5 xG_for of 1.24, a season goals average of 1.0 and 6.0 shots with 2.5 on target per match, which sustains the probability of scoring. Considering 80–100% BTTS rates in form, the lack of clean sheets and the defensive discrepancy (Levadia last5 conceded 1.2 goals vs Vaprus 2.8), I assess BTTS at 85% vs 15% and recommend a "yes" selection.

Combining xG and defensive statistics yields expected goals: Levadia ≈1.79 (1.2 home attacking xG and 2.37 xG conceded by Vaprus away → (1.2+2.37)/2), Vaprus ≈1.33 (0.87 xG Vaprus and 1.78 xG conceded by Levadia → (0.87+1.78)/2), total ≈3.12. Seasonal percentages confirm a propensity for goals — both teams have 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, therefore Over 1.5 is rated very highly (95%). The 2.5 line also has strong justification: Vaprus have 100% of matches over 2.5 this season, Levadia 50%, and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred in 60% for Levadia and 80% for Vaprus, hence Over 2.5 ≈75%. For the 3.5 line the picture is more balanced — seasonal Over 3.5 for both teams is 50%, and the expected 3.12 is below the 3.5 threshold, so Under 3.5 appears to have the edge (60%), despite Levadia scoring 10 goals in the last 5 matches and Vaprus conceding 14. In summary: the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation), Over 2.5 is a valuable secondary option, and Over 3.5 has lower probability.

Seasonally, Tallinna FC Levadia have drawn at half-time in 100% of matches and have not held a lead at the break (0%), but in the last 5 fixtures the home side led at the break in 40% and were level at half-time in 60% of cases. Levadia hold an offensive edge: they score an average of 1.5 goals per game versus Vaprus’s 1.0, generate 1.20 xG compared to the visitors’ 0.87 and average 9 shots per match versus the away side’s 6. Vaprus’s defense is highly vulnerable — the visitors concede on average 4.5 goals per match over the season, and in their last 5 games they conceded an average of 2.2 second-half goals. Over the same recent period the hosts averaged 1.2 goals in second halves, indicating Levadia’s propensity to determine matches after the break. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1).