Tamworth vs Wealdstone: match statistics

Tamworth sit 22nd in the table and have collected 4 points from their last five matches, while Wealdstone occupy 17th place and have earned 7 points over the same period. However, the hosts create significantly more chances at home: their average xG stands at 2.36 compared with the visitors’ 1.21, while their shots on target average 7.33 versus Wealdstone’s 3.25. Tamworth’s defensive record remains a concern, as they concede an average of 2 goals per home match and are yet to keep a clean sheet, while they have conceded as many as 14 goals in their last five games. Wealdstone lose only 25% of their away matches, win 50% and concede an average of 1 goal, but their xG against is 1.78, which could provide the hosts with plenty of opportunities. The combination of Tamworth’s strong attacking potential with the visitors’ better current form and more stable defense points most strongly towards a closely contested draw.

Tamworth have landed BTTS in 100% of their league matches to date and in 100% of their last 5 fixtures, driven by a combination of a high number of goals conceded and the ability to respond with goals of their own. The hosts have averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last five matches, but have conceded as many as 2.8, while Wealdstone have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Wealdstone should be able to exploit Tamworth’s very weak defense, which concedes an average of 2.67 goals per game this season and has kept no clean sheets. Tamworth, meanwhile, have created chances worth an average xG of 1.91 across their last five matches, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents an xG of 1.54, making a home goal a realistic scenario as well. A BTTS rate of 65% across the league further supports the Goal/Goal pick, although Wealdstone’s 25% clean-sheet rate leaves a moderate risk of the BTTS - No outcome. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The match profile points towards goals, as Tamworth’s games produced at least 2 goals in 100% of cases, while Wealdstone cleared this line in 75% of matches. The hosts have averaged 1.8 goals scored across their last 5 appearances, but conceded as many as 2.8 per game, significantly increasing the visitors’ attacking potential. Tamworth create chances worth an average of 1.66 xG, while Wealdstone’s defense allows opponents 1.78 xG per match. Meanwhile, Wealdstone average 1.75 goals away from home, and the hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match, conceding an average of 2.67 goals at home. Over 1.5 is the safest choice, combining a very high frequency of two-goal games with a projected total of 3.35 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Wealdstone victory at full-time, as Tamworth were level at the break in 67% of their matches, compared with 50% for Wealdstone. The hosts have not led at half-time on any occasion, while in their last five matches they were trailing at the break in 60% of cases, conceding an average of 1.6 goals before half-time. Wealdstone score an average of 1.75 goals per match and concede just 1.00, whereas Tamworth concede as many as 2.67 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches. After the break, the visitors score an average of 1.25 goals and concede 0.50, while Tamworth score just 0.33 and allow their opponents 1.67 goals. Wealdstone’s advantage is also evident in the full-time results: the visitors won 50% of their matches and averaged 1.75 points, compared with Tamworth’s 0% win rate and 0.33 points.