Tapatío vs CDS Tampico Madero: match statistics

I forecast a draw (X). In the last 5 matches Tapatío scored 3 and conceded 7, registering no wins in that period and averaging 0.4 points per game, while Tampico Madero have 5 goals in 5 matches and average 1.0 point per game. The home side generate high xG (1.75) and average 19 shots with 2 on target, but their conversion is 0% and their “failed to score” rate is 100%, indicating major finishing issues despite quality chances. The visitors are slightly more efficient in scoring (5 vs 3 in the last 5) but also vulnerable at the back (6 conceded vs 7 for the hosts), which balances their form advantage. Considering Tapatío’s tendency for home draws (100% home draws in seasonal data) and the small differential in defense and xG, a point split in a low-scoring affair is the most likely outcome.

Data analysis favors No BTTS in this match. League-wide BTTS rate is only 43%, while the clean sheet rate is 86%, meaning in 86% of matches at least one team keeps a clean sheet. In the short term Tapatío has 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches (3/5) and Tampico 40% (2/5) — average 50% — however the seasonal values for both teams show 0% BTTS, indicating the longer-term trend is against both teams scoring. Recent 5-match goal stats show Tapatío scores 0.6 and concedes 1.4, while Tampico scores 1.0 and concedes 1.2; hosts have xG 1.48 over the last 5 and visitors 0.85, so the hosts create chances but finish poorly. Considering the high league clean sheet rate (86%), the season-long 0% BTTS for both sides and mixed form signals, I assign 60% probability to 'No' and 40% to 'Yes'.

Based on the last 5 matches I estimated expected goals: Tapatío's attacking xG 1.48 and Tampico Madero's defensive xG 1.25 yield 1.37 expected goals for the home side, while the visitors' attacking xG 0.85 and the home defense xG 1.34 yield 1.10 for the away side, totaling 2.47 goals. With a mean of 2.47 the Poisson model suggests probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈71%, Over 2.5 ≈45% and Over 3.5 ≈24% (corresponding unders 29%, 55%, 76%). Both teams have a 40% share of matches above 2.5 in their last 5 games; the hosts scored 3 and conceded 7 in those 5 matches, the visitors scored 5 and conceded 6, indicating moderate scoring potential. The league averages 3.14 goals per match, but local xG and recent results (hosts concede 1.4 and visitors 1.2 goals per match on average) argue against a very high-scoring game. The strongest signal from the data is Under 3.5 (≈76% chance), therefore I recommend a play on Under at the 3.5 line.

In the last five matches the home side did not lead at the break in any game (0% leads) and were level at half-time in 40% of cases, while the away side led at the break in 20% and were level in 60%. In those five matches the home team averages 0.6 goals and 0.4 points per game, whereas the away team averages 1.0 goal and 1.0 point per game, indicating stronger away performance over 90 minutes. The home xG is only 0.36 versus an xG against of 0.55, and the home side averages just 4.0 shots per match, pointing to limited attacking quality from the hosts before half-time. At the league level, a high 86% clean sheets rate and 43% of matches with both teams scoring suggest low goal counts and frequent half-time draws; combined HT/FT tendencies therefore favor a draw at the break with a turnaround after the break in favor of the away team. For these reasons I assign the highest probability to the scenario draw at half-time and away win at full-time (X/2) — 33%; second is draw/draw at 23%; and only 9% combined is attributed to scenarios in which the home side lead at the break.