Tapatío vs Morelia: match statistics
Tapatío displays impressive home form with a 55% win rate and a positive +9 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.18 goals per match at home, which is significantly better than Morelia's 1.31 goals away. Morelia has weaker away form (31% wins, -2 goal difference) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.46) in away matches. Morelia's recent form is better (2.4 points per game), but Tapatío at home, with a higher xG (1.62 vs 1.29) and a better shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%), holds the advantage. I expect a close match, but the home advantage and better offensive statistics in home games point towards a victory for the hosts, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
Tapatío vs Morelia: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
Tapatío played against Morelia in Ascenso MX (Mexico). The game was played on March 22, 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Recent form
Tapatío has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.40 points per game. Morelia has 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss, with 2.40 points per game.
Scoring records
Tapatío scores 1.74 goals per game and allows 1.48. Morelia scores 1.44 and allows 1.15. Games in this league average 2.93 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 65% of Tapatío's games and 48% of Morelia's. The Over 2.5 rates are 65% and 56%, compared with league averages of 55% for BTTS and 53% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Morelia has the higher season xG average, 1.61 to 1.45 per game. Tapatío takes 12.3 shots per game, while Morelia takes 13.6.
First-half and second-half trends
Tapatío leads at halftime in 43% of its games and scores 0.87 goals per game after halftime. Morelia leads at halftime in 33% and scores 0.74 after halftime.
When the teams score
Tapatío's most productive scoring window is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). For Morelia, it is minutes 76-90+ (12 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
Ascenso MX games average 2.93 goals. Both teams score in 55% of games, and 53% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 1 draw and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Tapatío displays impressive home form with a 55% win rate and a positive +9 goal difference at their own stadium. The hosts score an average of 2.18 goals per match at home, which is significantly better than Morelia's 1.31 goals away. Morelia has weaker away form (31% wins, -2 goal difference) and a higher average of goals conceded (1.46) in away matches. Morelia's recent form is better (2.4 points per game), but Tapatío at home, with a higher xG (1.62 vs 1.29) and a better shot conversion rate (15% vs 13%), holds the advantage. I expect a close match, but the home advantage and better offensive statistics in home games point towards a victory for the hosts, although a draw is also a realistic scenario.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| Tapatío | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
Morelia is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / game - Tapatío · 2.4 pts / game - Morelia
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tapatío is 21% better for: goals scored per game.
1.74 goals / game - Tapatío · 1.44 goals / game - Morelia
Morelia is 29% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.48 goals / game - Tapatío · 1.15 goals / game - Morelia
Tapatío scores in 78% of games (18 of 23 meczów), while Morelia keeps a clean sheet in 37% (10 of 27 meczów).
Morelia scores in 74% of games (20 of 27 meczów), while Tapatío keeps a clean sheet in 17% (4 of 23 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Tapatío
Over / Under - Morelia
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tapatío is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / game - Tapatío · 1.48 pts / game - Morelia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Tapatío - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 43% of games and wins 35%. Usually protects a halftime lead through the final whistle.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
Morelia - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 44%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Defense stays consistent across the full game.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals per game | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
Tapatío
Morelia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ascenso MX).
Teams vs league
| Tapatío | Liga | Morelia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | ▲ 3.22 | 2.93 | ▼ 2.59 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 65% | 55% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 53% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 26% | ▲ 37% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 74% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- TapatíoSubstitutionOn: Sebastián Maximiliano Esparza GonzálezOff: Leonardo Sebastián Jiménez Quintero
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from Tapatío's perspective: 0 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses against Morelia. Games average 0.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of Tapatío vs Morelia?
The Ascenso MX match finished Tapatío 2:1 Morelia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Tapatío vs Morelia?
Tapatío score 1.74 goals per game on average and Morelia 1.44. The Ascenso MX average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 65% of Tapatío's matches and 48% of Morelia's.
What form are Tapatío and Morelia in?
Over the last 5 games Tapatío have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Morelia 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Tapatío vs Morelia?
The statistical background for Tapatío vs Morelia — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.