Tatran Prešov vs FK Košice: match statistics

I expect an away win for FK Košice because they have 11 wins and 44 goals this season versus Tatran Prešov’s 4 wins and 23 goals. In the last 5 matches Košice have won 4/5, scored 10 goals and average 2.6 points per match, while Tatran have not won any of their last 5, scored 4 goals and average only 0.4 points per match. Offensively the visitors are superior: away they average 4.77 shots on target and 13.62 shots per match with a 10% conversion and xG 1.57, whereas the hosts at home average 3.62 on target, 11.92 shots and xG 1.33; the percentage of games without scoring is 15% for Košice vs 38% for Tatran. Defensively the differences are smaller — Tatran concede 1.77 goals at home on average, Košice 1.85 away, with xG against 1.49 vs 1.66, which suggests the visitors have an offensive edge but the match can still produce chances for both sides. Considering superior efficiency, higher chance volume and form (10 vs 4 goals in the last 5) I give Košice a 65% chance to win, draw 20% and a 15% upset for the hosts.

Season data strongly support BTTS: Tatran Prešov has BTTS at 64%, FK Košice 77%, versus a league rate of 53%. Košice have scored 44 and conceded 45 this season, and in the last 5 matches scored 10 goals, averaging 2.0 per game, with last match xG 2.24; Prešov scored 4 in the last 5, averaging 0.8, and conceded on average 1.4 goals. Clean sheets are rare: Prešov has 21% clean sheets, Košice only 8%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally Prešov generates 1.92 xG and 6.14 shots on target per game, and Košice 1.57 xG and 4.77 shots on target, so both teams create scoring opportunities, with Košice converting this into 44 goals for the season. Considering season BTTS 64%/77%, last 5 matches 60%/80%, along with high goal numbers and low clean sheet percentages, I rate BTTS - Yes at 80% versus 20% for No Goal.

The xG model linearly indicates high goal potential: Prešov xG is 1.92 versus Košice xG conceded 1.66, yielding expected home goals ~1.79, while Košice xG 1.57 versus xG conceded to Prešov 1.29 yields expected away goals ~1.43; total expected goals ~3.22. Seasonal metrics support this — Over 1.5 occurred in 93% of Prešov’s matches and 92% of Košice’s, while Over 2.5 occurred in 64% and 62% of matches respectively. BTTS is 64% for the home side and 77% for the away side, and Prešov averages 6.14 shots on target vs Košice 4.77 with conversion rates 11% and 10%, increasing the likelihood of goals from both teams. Poisson distribution recalculation for a sum of 3.22 yields ~62% chance of at least 3 goals and ~40–42% for 4+ goals, so Over 2.5 is probable but weaker than Over 1.5. Consequently I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (93% rating), Over 2.5 (64%) as a secondary pick, while Over 3.5 remains risky (~41%).

Data suggest the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time with the home side winning at full-time. Hosts led at the break in 43% of their matches this season versus 31% for the visitors, although in the last five meetings the visitors led at the break in 60% of cases. Crucially, Tatran are highly effective in second halves — they average 1.07 goals after the break at home, while Košice average 0.46 goals in second halves away, and the hosts have seen a goal after the break in 86% of home matches. The hosts’ seasonal advantage is also evident in chance quality: Tatran’s xG is 1.92 versus Košice’s 1.57, and the home side’s average points are 1.64 versus the visitors’ 1.08, all of which favor a Tatran win in regular time. On the other hand, Košice are in very good recent form (80% wins in their last five), which justifies giving moderate weight to scenarios where the visitors lead at the break and hold the result (2/2) or are leading at the break and then draw (2/X). Overall I assign a 26% probability to the X/1 scenario, 22% to 1/1 and 12% to 2/2, with the remaining options distributed as: X/X 14%, 1/X 8%, X/2 7%, 2/X 5%, 1/2 3% and 2/1 3%.