Team Altamura vs Bari 1908: match statistics

Team Altamura have the home advantage: they have won one of their two home matches, kept one clean sheet and conceded just 1 goal on average. Bari 1908 come into this fixture on the back of a better overall run, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches and an average of 2 points per game compared with the hosts’ 1.6, but they suffered an away defeat, failed to score and conceded 3 goals. The hosts create higher-quality chances at home, as reflected by an xG of 1.23 compared with Bari’s 1.01 away from home, while their opponents allow 1.60 xG. Altamura also average more shots per match, 10.5 compared with 8, so they should create chances more frequently. The low finishing efficiency of both teams, particularly Bari’s 0 goals away from home, increases the likelihood of a draw, but the visitors’ defensive weakness on the road slightly favors a home win.

The BTTS - No pick is slightly stronger because Bari have not scored yet in the season data, failing to find the net in 100% of such matches. Altamura have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches, while Bari average just 2 shots on target per match compared with 5 for the hosts. On the other hand, the last five matches present a more balanced picture: both teams score 1.2 goals per match, with a BTTS rate of 60% for Altamura and 20% for Bari. Bari’s xG over the last five matches stands at 1.32, but Altamura conceded an average of 1.2 goals during this period, so an away goal remains a realistic possibility, although it is not the base-case scenario. The hosts’ attacking advantage, 2.0 goals scored at home, and Bari’s poor away efficiency support an outcome in which at least one team fails to score.

Altamura’s last five matches averaged 2.4 total goals, with the team scoring and conceding 1.2 goals per game. Bari’s matches were even more subdued over the same period, averaging 2.0 goals, with 1.2 scored and just 0.8 conceded. The estimated xG points to a balanced match: 1.38 for the home side and 1.32 for the visitors, while the defensive xG figures for both teams stand at 1.43 and 1.48, respectively. Only 40% of each team’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals, while season-to-date data shows that neither side has played a match featuring at least four goals. The 2.45-goal projection gives a clear edge to Under 3.5, which also covers the most likely scorelines of 1:1, 2:0 and 2:1.

Team Altamura score an average of 2.0 goals at home and have yet to concede, while Bari average 0.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per away match. The hosts also create significantly more danger: their average xG is 1.41 compared with Bari’s 1.01, while shots on target stand at 5.0 versus 2.0. In their matches played so far at home, Altamura have been leading at the break in 50% of games and drawing in the remaining 50%, whereas Bari have been behind at half-time in 100% of their away matches. After the break, the hosts’ advantage should increase, as they score an average of 1.5 goals in the second half, while Bari concede 2.0 goals during that period. Bari’s last five matches have produced better points returns, with 2.0 points per game compared with Altamura’s 1.6, but the hosts’ strong home-versus-away figures primarily support an HT/FT 1/1 outcome: leading at half-time and securing the win at full-time.