Temperley vs Gimnasia Jujuy: match statistics

Temperley win 67% of their home matches, while Gimnasia Jujuy win 27% of their away games and lose 40% of them. The hosts score an average of 1.87 goals at home, while the visitors concede 1.67 on the road, pointing to a clear attacking advantage for Temperley. The quality of the chances created reinforces this: Temperley’s home xG is 1.41, while Gimnasia’s away xG conceded stands at 1.72. The hosts also look more solid defensively, conceding an average of 1.13 goals at home compared with 1.67 by the visitors away. Temperley have taken 10 points and conceded just 3 goals in their last five matches, although Gimnasia remain unbeaten over that spell, which warrants keeping the draw as a significant possibility.

Both teams have high season-long rates of matches with goals at both ends: Temperley 63% and Gimnasia Jujuy 67%, well above the league average of 39%. A home goal is particularly likely, as Temperley average 1.88 goals at home, while the visitors concede 1.67 away and keep a clean sheet in only 7% of matches. The visitors are also backed to score by the fact that they have found the net in each of their last 5 games, with an average xG of 1.74 over that period. However, the risk to BTTS - Yes remains significant: Temperley have conceded just 0.6 goals per match recently, while Gimnasia Jujuy have failed to score in 33% of their away games. The edge in season-long results and the visitors’ current scoring form gives a slight advantage to the scenario in which both teams score.

Over 1.5 goals looks the strongest option: this threshold has been surpassed in 81% of Temperley’s matches and 93% of Gimnasia Jujuy’s. The hosts score an average of 1.88 goals and generate an xG of 1.90, while the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals, pointing to strong scoring potential for Temperley. Gimnasia Jujuy score an average of 1.13 goals, but Temperley concede just 0.81, so I assess the visitors’ contribution more cautiously. The 2.5-goal line is less reliable: it has been surpassed in 50% of the hosts’ matches and 60% of the visitors’ matches, while the league average is just 1.93 goals. With a forecast of 2.70 goals, the case for Over 1.5 is driven primarily by the high frequency with which both teams surpass this line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Temperley were level at the break in all of their last five matches, while Gimnasia Jujuy were level in 60% of their last five. Over the full period analyzed, the visitors went into half-time level in 67% of their matches, so their recent results are no random deviation. After the break, the edge lies with Temperley, who average 1.31 goals in the second half, while Gimnasia concede an average of 1.27. The hosts have won 69% of their matches, compared with 27% for the visitors, although Gimnasia have not lost any of their last five games. Therefore, a draw at half-time followed by a Temperley win at full-time is the strongest indication, but the visitors’ good recent run leaves room for a draw at full-time.