Temperley vs Quilmes: match statistics

Temperley is the favorite: at home they have won all matches so far (100% wins, 0% losses), averaging 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded per game, and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of home fixtures. Quilmes have poor away form: they lose 75% of away games and failed to score in 75% of trips, averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded on the road. The visitors register more shots (10.5 per match) and more shots on target (3.25) than Temperley (7 and 2.5), but their conversion rate is only 7% versus the hosts' 21%, indicating wasted opportunities. Although Quilmes generate 1.32 xG away compared to Temperley’s 0.98 xG, the gap between xG and actual goals (0.75 scored away) points to the visitors’ inefficiency, so I back the home win.

Temperley as the home side shows a very defensive profile — conceding only 0.33 goals per match on average and keeping a clean sheet in 67% of this season’s games, while Quilmes scores 0.75 goals on average away and has a season BTTS of 0%. Quilmes produces an average xG of 1.32 with 10.5 shots and 3.25 shots on target per match, but its conversion rate is only 7%, which explains why higher xG does not translate into goals. Temperley has an opponent xG of 1.54 but actually concedes only 0.33 goals — indicating the team defends better than xG suggests; in the last 5 matches the home side has scored 3 and conceded 2 goals, and its BTTS in the last 5 is 20%. Additionally, the league has a seasonal BTTS level of 38% and a high clean sheet rate of 79%, supporting a match scenario with at least one side keeping a clean sheet; Quilmes with 0% BTTS and a low 7% conversion is the primary candidate not to score. In light of these comparisons I assess the probability of BTTS - Yes at around 25%, and BTTS - No at 75%.

Temperley averages 1.67 goals scored at home and concedes only 0.33 goals per match (67% clean sheets), while Quilmes scores 0.75 goals away with xG_for 1.32 and 10.5 shots per match. Temperley has xG_for 0.88 and a high conversion rate of 25% from 6.67 shots, which explains their scoring efficiency; Quilmes generates more chances (xG 1.32, 10.5 shots) but has a low conversion of 7%, so they realistically score 0.75 goals. Overall I model about 1.60 expected goals for Temperley and 0.85 for Quilmes, i.e. ~2.45 total goals, and in the last 5 matches the two teams combined for 11 goals (3 home, 8 away), giving 2.2 goals per game. Temperley’s strong clean sheet rate (67%) and Quilmes’ very low BTTS percentage (0%) limit the probability of very high scores (>=3.5). Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 — expected ~2.45 goals and the hosts’ scoring efficiency support the Over 1.5 line.

Temperley at home scores an average of 1.67 goals per match and concedes only 0.33, winning 67% of home games this season. At Half-Time the hosts have led twice (67%), averaging 1.0 goals at the break and 0.0 conceded, with 100% of their matches at Half-Time as clean sheets (leadingAtHT_home 2.0, leadingAtHTPercentage_home 67.0; scoredAVGHT_home 1.0; concededAVGHT_home 0.0; seasonCSPercentageHT_home 100.0). Quilmes away has won only 25% of matches and lost 75%, averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game this season, and averages 0.5 goals by Half-Time (winPercentage_away 25%, losePercentage_away 75%, seasonScoredAVG_away 0.75, seasonConcededAVG_away 0.75, scoredAVGHT_away 0.5). Although Quilmes has a higher xG (1.32 vs 0.88), their low conversion rate of 7% versus Temperley’s 25% means they do not translate that into goals, so the strongest signal is 1/1 (Temperley leads at Half-Time and wins) — I assign this scenario a 50% probability; alternatives are X/1 12% and X/X 11%, and the chance of Quilmes producing a turnaround is limited (2/2 7%, 1/2 3%).